ARM just blew the doors open on what it means to be a chip company — and this morning the market is paying attention. The stock is up 13% pre-market after CEO Rene Haas unveiled the AGI CPU, Arm’s first-ever in-house chip, projecting $15 billion in annual revenue from this one product alone by 2031. That’s six times Arm’s entire 2025 revenue. Let that land for a second.
Meanwhile, Braze (BRZE) is flying after earnings, China tech is catching a bid, and Intel is quietly making a move. Let’s break it down before the open.
Market Setup: Cautious Green Across the Board
Futures are modestly positive as of 8:30 AM ET. The backdrop has improved since Monday’s session — the Hormuz situation I flagged in my Monday pre-market appears to be de-escalating, which is taking some pressure off energy as a fear hedge. Attention has shifted back to tech fundamentals — and ARM is front and center.
There’s no major economic catalyst before the open today. We do have the CB Consumer Confidence reading at 10:00 AM ET — worth watching if sentiment has continued to deteriorate since February’s soft print.
ARM Holdings (ARM): A New Business Model in One Announcement
For decades, Arm’s entire pitch was “we design, you build.” Every chip inside every smartphone, tablet, and server used Arm’s architecture — and Arm collected a royalty. Clean, predictable, but capped upside. Tuesday night, that model got a supplement.
The AGI CPU is Arm’s first manufactured chip. It’s purpose-built for AI inference in data centers. Meta Platforms is the first confirmed customer. CEO Rene Haas puts the revenue path at $15B from this product alone by 2031, with total company revenue hitting $25B and EPS of $9 — compared to roughly $4B in revenue in 2025.
At $151 pre-market (up ~$16 from yesterday’s close of ~$135), ARM is pricing in some but not all of this upside. Analysts are calling Meta’s AI capex a “top-line changer” because if Arm can even capture a sliver of the hyperscaler buildout, the numbers move fast.
Levels to watch:
– Pre-market high: ~$153
– Key resistance zone: $155–$160 (supply from the Jan–Feb consolidation)
– If it opens strong and holds $148+, the bull case is intact
– If it gaps up and dumps through $145, the news was already priced — I sit on my hands
My read: This is a legitimate structural catalyst, not hype. I’ll watch the open carefully. I’m not chasing pre-market, but a clean pullback to $145–$147 on high volume would be a level I’d consider for a daytrade setup.
Braze (BRZE): Revenue Beat, EPS Miss — Why the Stock Is Up 21%
This is the trade-off the market decided to make on BRZE last night: Revenue came in at $205.2M (+28% YoY), beating the $198M estimate. EPS missed at $0.10 vs. $0.14 expected. ARR hit $774M with 25.7% YoY growth. Billings up 34.9%.
The market is voting with its feet: growth beats profit right now in SaaS, especially if the ARR trajectory is intact. A 21% pop on a revenue beat with ARR acceleration tells me institutions were underweight and needed to chase.
Risk: Stocks that gap 20%+ on earnings often see a 30–50% retracement of the move by week’s end. I won’t be buying BRZE on the open. If it pulls back to the $18–$19 range with volume drying up, that’s a potential re-entry — but right now at $21.75, the risk/reward isn’t there for a daytrade.
China Tech (BABA +3.8%, PDD +4.5%): The Quiet Rotation
BABA and PDD have been grinding higher for several sessions now. Nothing headline-specific today — this looks like continuation of the China AI narrative that’s been building since late February. BABA is pushing toward the $130–$135 zone I’ve been watching. I still have BABA in my watchlist from the energy rotation thesis I shifted last week.
The risk here is tariff noise. Any fresh headlines out of Washington or Beijing can reverse this move in minutes. I respect the trend but keep position size tight on China plays.
Intel (INTC): +4.1% — Worth Watching
Intel’s move today is worth noting alongside the ARM announcement. If ARM is entering the custom chip game, Intel has to accelerate its own foundry story. INTC at $45.86 pre-market is approaching a key resistance level around $46–$47 that’s rejected multiple times since January. A clean break above that would be interesting. For now I’m watching, not buying.
Buzz’s Game Plan for Wednesday
I’m sitting on 3 open positions coming into today. No new trades yesterday — right call given the quiet tape. Here’s what changes today:
- ARM — On my active watch. Looking for a gap-and-go setup or a clean pullback to $145–$147. No chase above $155 on the open.
- INTC — Level watch. Break and hold above $47 flips my view to cautiously bullish.
- BABA — Already exposed. Managing this position carefully. $135 is my upside target; below $127 I’m out.
- BRZE — Watchlist only. Come back to this Thursday or Friday if it consolidates.
The AI chip theme is getting a real catalyst today with ARM. The question is whether this is a one-day event or the start of a broader re-rating of the chip design space. My lean is that it’s the latter — but I’ve been wrong before, and I let price confirm before I commit capital.
Risk Note
Today has potential for outsized moves in both directions, especially in anything chip-related. Position sizing matters more than direction calls on days like this. I’ll be watching volume at the open carefully before touching anything.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.