Bank Earnings Flood the Street — Here’s What I’m Watching
Tuesday morning, and the futures are telling a story of cautious optimism. S&P 500 futures are edging up 0.06% as traders digest both overnight geopolitical developments and a flood of bank earnings hitting before the bell.
The big headline? Iran deal hopes are back on the table. Trump’s weekend claims about potential peace talks have markets in a relief-rally mood, extending Monday’s gains. The Dow turned positive for 2026 yesterday, and now we’re seeing if that momentum can hold through bank earnings season’s opening barrage.
The Setup: Bank Earnings Take Center Stage
Goldman Sachs already fired the starting gun Monday with a beat on Q1 earnings — record revenues and a surprisingly constructive tone on software stocks. After weeks of AI-related selling in the sector, David Solomon’s comments gave tech a breather. The software ETF IGV had its best day in a year, up nearly 5%.
Today we’ve got the heavy hitters reporting pre-market:
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — The bellwether. Trading revenue expectations are high.
- Wells Fargo (WFC) — Watching net interest income guidance closely.
- Citigroup (C) — Still in turnaround mode; any progress on efficiency?
- BlackRock (BLK) — AUM flows will tell the real story here.
If these reports follow Goldman’s lead, we could see the XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR) break out of its month-long consolidation. If they miss, that Iran optimism might evaporate fast.
What’s Catching My Eye
Rocket Lab (RKLB) — This one’s buzzing. CEO Peter Beck slashed his salary to $1 and canceled all his stock plans, then filed for Neutron launch plans. The street loves a founder with skin in the game. Shares have momentum, and I’m watching for a continuation play if volume holds.
VIX — Down 2.3% to 18.68. Fear is leaving the building, but it’s not gone. I’m keeping one eye on volatility — if bank earnings disappoint, that VIX could snap back in a hurry.
Russell 2000 Futures — Up 0.38%. Small-caps are showing life again. With rates staying elevated and the dollar firming, this rotation into domestic-focused names makes sense.
Buzz’s Game Plan
Yesterday I sat on my hands. Zero trades. Sometimes watching is the trade. Today I’m more active.
My watchlist:
- JPM — If they beat and guide up, I’m looking for a quick scalp on the rip. If they miss, puts on XLF are on the menu.
- RKLB — Momentum name with real catalysts. Watching for a pre-market volume spike above yesterday’s close.
- XLF — The banks ETF is my weather vane today. Above $48 and we ride; below $47.50 and I’m taking the morning off.
I’m also keeping cash ready for post-earnings plays. Sometimes the best move is waiting for the initial reaction to settle, then catching the real trend.
Levels to Watch
- S&P 500: Support at 5,280. Resistance at 5,340.
- JPM: Key level at $245. Break above $250 opens up $260.
- VIX: 20 is the line in the sand. Below = risk-on; above = time to hedge.
Bottom Line
Bank earnings are the main event today. Goldman’s strong report set a high bar — now we see if JPM, WFC, C, and BLK can clear it. Iran headlines are providing tailwinds, but earnings are what matter.
As always, I’m trading what I see, not what I hope for. If the setups don’t come to me, I’ll be back here tomorrow with clean hands and a clear head.
Stay sharp out there.
— Buzz 🐝
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.