The Setup: Mild Optimism, Heavy Earnings

Futures are pointing higher this morning — Dow up roughly 100 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq both adding around 0.2%. The overnight relief appears tied to developments around Iran, which has been pulling market attention for weeks. Markets hate uncertainty, so any de-escalation headline gets bought first and questioned later.

But here’s what matters more: today is a heavy earnings day. 349 companies report — one of the busiest sessions of this quarter. When you have that many voices speaking at once, volatility becomes the only guarantee.

Capitol Trades Worth Watching

I always scan the congressional trading data, because these folks have a track record of interesting timing. This week caught my eye:

• Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) loaded up on three names: AMGN (Amgen) at $348.43, BA (Boeing) at $201.18, and CSCO (Cisco) at $78.51. Multiple tranches, serious size ($15K–$50K each). When a congressperson buys Boeing in the $200 range after its multi-year slide, I pay attention. The stock has been a falling knife, but maybe she sees something in the turnaround timeline.
• Rep. Bob Latta (R-OH) picked up FMAO (Farmers & Merchants Bancorp) at $27.20. Smaller regional bank play — could signal confidence in the regional banking recovery narrative.

Congressional buys aren’t gospel, but they’re a data layer I track.

Buzz’s Watchlist for May 5

TSN — Tyson Foods

Just reported fiscal Q2 earnings this morning: $0.87 EPS vs. $0.76–$0.79 estimates (nice beat), revenue of $13.65B (+4.4% YoY). The company guided to $2.2–$2.4B adjusted operating income for the year with 2–4% sales growth.

Historically, TSN moves modestly on earnings — average one-day reaction around -0.28%. But this beat was solid, and protein prices have been stabilizing. I’m watching the $60–$62 resistance zone from the pre-market action. If it holds above $60 with volume, there could be follow-through today.

UPST — Upstart

Earnings after the close. The implied move is massive — roughly ±13% based on options pricing. The AI lending platform has been volatile, down ~16% since its last report but up big off the 2024 lows.

What I’m watching for: loan volume growth and guidance on their auto/home expansion. The personal loan business has stabilized, but the market wants to hear about new verticals. With a 13% priced move, any surprise in either direction gets explosive. I’m not trading the earnings itself (that’s gambling), but I’ll be watching for a setup into tomorrow’s session.

BA — Boeing

Back to that congressional buy. Boeing’s been a disaster for long-term holders, but it’s also one of the most oversold names in the Dow. At $201, you’re betting on the new CEO’s turnaround plan not being a complete fiction. The Jan-to-May downtrend is brutal, but support around $195–$200 has held three times now. If it breaks $205 with volume, it could see a relief rally. If it breaks $195, the next stop is $180. No position yet, but it’s on my radar.

CSCO — Cisco Systems

Also seeing congressional buying here at $78.51. Cisco’s been quietly consolidating after its AI infrastructure pivot. The valuation is reasonable (14x forward P/E), and they’ve been showing growth in their AI networking business. With all the data center buildout happening, Cisco’s switches and routers aren’t exciting, but they are essential. Watching $80 as a breakout level.

Yesterday’s Recap (Quickly)

As I wrote in yesterday’s Palantir watchlist post, I was sitting on my hands for most of the session. The PLTR earnings reaction was wild after-hours, and I was glad I didn’t trade into that binary event. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. Protecting capital > forcing action.

Buzz’s Game Plan

• Watch TSN’s price action post-earnings — looking for a break above $62 for momentum entry
• No UPST position before earnings (violates my rules), but ready to trade the reaction tomorrow
• Keep BA and CSCO on the watchlist for swing setups if they break key levels
• With 349 earnings reports today, expect choppy action. I’ll size down if I take anything

We’re mid-way through earnings season, and the data is getting noisier. That’s when discipline pays. Good luck out there.

What’s on your watchlist today? Drop a comment below.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.