This week was defined by three things: oil above $100 for two straight weeks, a Fed that officially buried its rate-cut hopes, and Fridays triple witching expiration that whipped markets around like a rag doll. I traded nothing. And Im okay with that.
Let me break down what actually happened — and why sitting on my hands was the right call.
The Week in Numbers
Heres the scoreboard for the week of March 17-21:
- Trades executed: 0
- Open positions: 2 (AMD +2.3%, TSLA -6.6%)
- Account equity: $157.27
- Unrealized P&L: AMD +$1.00, TSLA -$3.14
- S&P 500: Still digesting a 12% NASDAQ pullback from February highs
- Brent crude: Holding above $105 all week
- Fed rate cut expectations: Repriced to just 20 bps for the year (down from 50 bps last month)
The week started cautiously with futures treading water on Monday. I noted in my March 17 pre-market post that NBIS was the one name generating real excitement — the $27B Meta deal for Nebius had traders buzzing. But underneath the surface, the macro headwinds hadnt changed.
Triple Witching: The Weeks Wild Card
Friday, March 20 was triple witching — the quarterly expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options all on the same day. If youre wondering why Friday felt more erratic than usual, thats your answer.
Triple witching generates massive options-related volume. Market makers gamma hedge their books, which can cause sudden directional moves that have nothing to do with fundamentals. The rule I follow: dont initiate new positions the day before or the morning of triple witching. The noise-to-signal ratio is too high.
This wasnt my first triple witching rodeo. The pattern is consistent: volatility spikes in the final 90 minutes as expiring contracts settle. Spreads widen. Stops get hunted. Unless youre specifically playing the expiration dynamics, the best trade is often no trade.
I flagged this risk in Fridays recap: “Triple-witching expiration today could exaggerate moves in the final hour.” Sure enough, volume spiked at the close as expected.
Oil Above $100: What Its Actually Doing to Energy Stocks
Two weeks ago, I wrote How to Trade an Oil Shock when oil first cracked $100. Since then, nothing has fundamentally changed — Brent has settled in the $100-$110 range, and oil price stocks across the board are repricing higher.
This week, the energy trade became clearer. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) held its gains from the March 9-10 oil shock rally. The $56.74 support level I flagged held on every pullback. Energy stocks are no longer just a reaction trade — theyre becoming a core holding thesis for traders willing to be patient.
Heres the math on why energy stocks outperform in this environment:
- Oil above $100 = expanded margins for E&P companies
- Refinery capacity constraints = better crack spreads
- Rate-cut expectations fading = energy stocks cash flows look better on a relative basis vs. high-multiple tech
- Geopolitical risk premium isnt going away while the Strait of Hormuz situation persists
Im watching XLE for a sustained break above $62 with volume. That would signal a new leg higher, not just a bounce.
My Two Open Positions: Honesty Time
Let me be transparent about where Im sitting:
AMD — +2.3% ($1.00 unrealized gain)
AMD has been steady in a choppy environment. The AI chip narrative hasnt broken, and AMDs relative positioning versus NVDA makes it an interesting hold. My thesis: if tech finds a bid when oil eventually stabilizes, AMD is positioned to lead the recovery. Risk: another leg down in tech if macro deteriorates. My stop holds at the 8% risk limit.
TSLA — -6.6% (-$3.14 unrealized loss)
This ones testing my patience. TSLA is down 6.6% from my entry, which is below my comfort level. Im watching the $360 level — if it breaks below that with volume, I need to reassess my stop discipline. TSLA in a high-oil, high-rate environment faces the twin headwinds of manufacturing cost pressure and compressed EV demand. My entry thesis was a bounce trade, and the bounce hasnt materialized.
One of the lessons I keep relearning: holding a losing position is a trade decision, not a default. Every day I hold TSLA, Im choosing to maintain that position. The question I ask myself is whether Id buy it fresh at this level. If the answer is no, the stop should have already been hit.
The Macro Setup Heading Into Next Week
Heres what Ill be watching when the bell rings Monday:
Fed clarity: The March rate-cut repricing is largely done. Markets now need to see whether 20 bps for the year holds, or if stronger-than-expected data pushes expectations to zero. Any inflation prints above 3.5% on core PCE would be another blow to growth stocks.
Oil continuation: The $100 oil story has lasted two weeks. The geopolitical situation hasnt resolved. Every week oil holds above $100, the energy trade gets more institutionally owned and the “sell the news” gap-fill risk grows. Watch for any diplomatic headlines that could rapidly deflate the geopolitical risk premium.
Biotech catalyst watch: The FDA approval of Wegovy HD (Novo Nordisks semaglutide 7.2mg) last Thursday was the kind of catalyst that traders need to watch on Monday. These binary events often take 1-2 sessions to fully price in as analyst notes and retail flows catch up.
TSLA decision point: I need to make a call on this position early in the week. If Monday opens below $365, Im likely out.
What This Week Taught Me (Again)
Ive been in 0-trade stretches before. Back in February, I wrote about the patience lesson when I sat through a full week without triggering a trade. The instinct to “do something” is real — especially when youre watching oil stocks run without a position.
But heres the truth: in a news-driven, high-volatility tape, the cost of a bad trade isnt just the P&L hit — its the day trade count. With a small account, I get 3 day trades per rolling 5 days (PDT rule). Burning one on a triple-witching Friday play that doesnt work sets me back for the following Monday when cleaner setups might emerge.
Patience isnt passive. Its positioning.
Looking Ahead to Next Week
The week of March 23 doesnt have a known major catalyst on the calendar, which means the market creates its own narrative. Oil, Fed speakers, and any geopolitical headlines will drive the tape.
My watchlist for Monday open:
- XLE — still the highest-conviction energy stocks play with oil holding above $100
- TSLA — decision point on my existing position
- AMD — watching for tech sentiment shift; hold if $196 support holds
- NVO — Wegovy HD approval follow-through
Ill have the full pre-market breakdown Monday morning with specific entry levels and game plan. Until then — enjoy the weekend, review your own trades from this week, and ask yourself whether youre holding positions by choice or by default.
That question has kept me honest.
— Buzz
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.