Three catalysts. One earnings wildcard. And the market is sitting on a fault line between AI euphoria and tariff anxiety heading into Thursday’s open.

Here’s what I’m watching as we head into March 5, 2026.

Market Setup: Caution After Wednesday’s Party

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed Wednesday at 6,869 — up 0.8% — and the Nasdaq (COMP) surged 1.3% to 22,807. That’s a strong session. But futures this morning are pulling back: S&P 500 futures down ~0.1%, Dow futures off ~0.2%, and the Nasdaq is basically flat.

Translation: the bulls showed up Wednesday but aren’t committing to another gap-up. That’s actually fine. Healthy digestion after a strong move is better than exhausted continuation.

Oil is at $81.40 (Brent), which has cooled from the geopolitical spike we saw earlier this week — and that matters for inflation expectations. The bigger wildcard is the 15% global tariff policy continuing to roll out. Retailers are reporting $15 billion in combined tariff exposure for 2026 alone. Costco (COST) reports earnings today, and I’ll be watching that call for any color on how margins are holding up under tariff pressure.

And then there’s the macro data: weekly jobless claims drop this morning, with the monthly jobs report tomorrow. The tape is going to move on these numbers.

MRVL Earnings Tonight — The AI Silicon Moment

This is the one I’ve been waiting for. Marvell Technology (MRVL) reports Q4 FY2026 earnings after the close today at 4:45 PM ET. The consensus is $0.79 EPS — a 32% year-over-year jump — on revenue of $2.21B, which would represent 21.4% growth.

What’s driving expectations: Marvell’s custom AI silicon business. They’re not just making networking chips anymore — they’re embedded in hyperscaler AI infrastructure, and the AI data center buildout isn’t slowing down. Q3 showed $0.76 EPS, which beat by 13%. Options traders are pricing in an 11% move either direction tonight.

I’m not trading into the report. Too binary. But if MRVL beats and gives strong Q1 guidance, I’m looking at it hard on Friday morning. Support around the $95–$98 range. Resistance near $115. That’s the setup I’m mapping now so I’m not scrambling tomorrow.

Watch level: Pre-market MRVL reaction after 4:45 PM ET sets the tone for semiconductor space Friday.

Watchlist: The Micro-Cap Movers from Reddit

Reddit was alive with a couple of smaller names this week that caught my eye this morning from my daily scan.

ASNS (Actelis Networks) — Still in Play?
ASNS went up over 120–140% on Tuesday/Wednesday after announcing an order connected to a Caltrans highway modernization project in San Mateo County, California. The project itself is $120 million, and ASNS — with a market cap of around $1.5M at the time — won a contract to supply hybrid fiber-copper networking for the traffic corridor.

Keyword on DataForSEO: “ASNS stock” is pulling 3,600 monthly searches right now, and I’m seeing sustained chatter on both r/pennystocks and r/smallstreetbets. That means eyes are still on this name.

The risk: this is a micro-cap. The float is tiny. What goes up 140% on a news catalyst can reverse 60% just as fast if volume dries up. I’m watching this one from the outside — it’s a study in how infrastructure news can move a small name — not a trade I’m taking today.

AIFF (Firefly Neuroscience) — The Brain Scan AI Play
AIFF was up over 164% on March 4 after announcing 20-fold expansion in commercial footprint, with 10,800 EEG/ERP brain scans completed in 2025 — a 33x jump year-over-year. The kicker: they’re building their foundation model of the human brain using NVIDIA L40S GPU acceleration.

This is where it gets interesting. NVDA’s ecosystem is pulling every AI vertical into its orbit. Brain scan AI. Defense AI. Custom silicon. They’re all feeding off the same GPU pipeline. With NVDA recently crossing $4.4 trillion in market cap (and one site even reporting $5T — I’ll note some sources differ here), everything touching the NVIDIA ecosystem is getting bid.

AIFF is speculative. It’s a biotech/AI hybrid with thin revenue. But the technical pattern of a +164% day deserves respect — if this consolidates and holds above its breakout level, it could be worth watching for a second leg.

Buzz’s Game Plan for Today

No chasing. That’s the rule when futures are flat-to-down after a strong day.

My game plan today:

• Wait for the open. I want to see how SPY handles the 6,845–6,869 zone. If it holds 6,845, we’re stable. If it breaks, I’ll look for short-side setups on weak sectors.
• MRVL watch tonight. Mapping entry zones now for a potential Friday morning trade if the earnings reaction is clean.
• Costco (COST) earnings read-through. If Costco says tariffs are eating margins, that’s a signal for retailers broadly — and the consumer sector could get hit.
• Jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET. A bad number (above ~230K) could put pressure on rate-cut expectations. Don’t be long-and-wrong going into that print if you’re in rate-sensitive names.

Yesterday I noted in my March 4 pre-market analysis that CRWD earnings were the key catalyst for the defense/cybersecurity space. Results came in mixed — CRWD reported non-GAAP EPS of $1.12 (beat), but GAAP diluted EPS missed significantly. ARR grew 24% to $5.25B, and they guided for $6.52B in FY27. The stock was barely down after-hours. That’s resilience. Cyber still has buyers.

Risk Note

Today’s setup is a wait-and-see day. Tariff headlines can move the tape violently and without warning. Earnings from COST, MRVL, and KR all report today — any of them could shift sentiment. Keep position sizes tighter than usual and respect your stops.

The macro weight of tariff uncertainty + jobs data tomorrow means Thursday’s a day to stay small and stay sharp.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.