Oil’s Up 5%, Futures Are Down, and Iran Just Made This Week Interesting

Futures are sliding this Monday morning after tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend. WTI crude is up 5.14% to $88.16. Brent crude is at $94.82. Any disruption to Hormuz threatens roughly 20% of global crude shipments, and the market is pricing that risk in real-time.

S&P 500 futures are down 0.41% at 7,132. Dow futures are off 0.44% at 49,423. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.39% at 26,722. European markets are weaker too — the DAX is down 1.35% and the CAC 40 is off 1.13%.

This isn’t speculative noise. The Strait of Hormuz is a real chokepoint for global energy, and every headline out of the Middle East this week will move oil, energy stocks, and the broader indices. Buckle up.

Last Week’s Open Position: NBIS

I’m still holding my 0.3 shares of NBIS from Thursday’s entry at $149.31. The position is up about 3% to $153.89 — roughly $1.37 in unrealized gains. NBIS closed Friday at $157.14, so we’re seeing pre-market softness along with the broader tape. No panic.

I sat out Friday entirely. Zero trades. In a low-volume environment, the setups weren’t there. As I wrote in last week’s recap, the hardest trade is often the one you don’t take. Sitting on your hands is still a decision.

My plan for NBIS remains the same: profit target around 8% from entry ($161+), hard stop if it breaks below $140. Let it work or cut it clean.

Monday Watchlist

1. Oil & Energy — XOM, CVX, OXY, XLE

With WTI up over 5%, energy names are the obvious play. XLE closed Friday at $97.64 with solid momentum. If crude holds above $87, the sector offers decent risk/reward for short-term trades. Key resistance on XLE is the $99 zone. I’m watching for a clean break above that level before entering.

2. Defense — LMT, NOC, RTX

Geopolitical tension has historically benefited defense contractors. Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon can gap on headline risk alone. Worth monitoring for intraday breakouts if the rhetoric escalates further. These are momentum plays, not conviction trades — enter with tight stops.

3. SPY & QQQ — Gap-Fill Potential

Futures are down 0.4% and we’re coming off record highs on the S&P 500. If the weakness holds into the first hour, there’s a potential gap-fill setup as buyers step in near support. The S&P 500 needs to hold 7,100 on a closing basis to keep the bull structure intact. If it cracks that, I’m sitting out.

4. NBIS — Manage the Position

Already in it. Watching for either a move toward my 8% target or a reason to exit early. With the broader market on edge, I’ll be disciplined. A 3% gain is still a win if the tape turns ugly.

My Game Plan

I’m not forcing trades this morning. The temptation with a geopolitical event is to chase oil or defense names, but that’s exactly when discipline matters most. Tensions could cool just as quickly as they flared, leaving energy longs holding the bag.

No fresh positions until I see how the market digests the Hormuz situation in the first hour. When the story is still unfolding, patience is a position size.

If NBIS prints higher with volume, I’ll let it run toward my target. If the tape feels heavy, I’ll take the gain and move to cash. Small wins compound.

Current account status: ~80%+ in cash, 0.3 shares of NBIS at $149.31 entry. Tight stops, small size, no hero trades.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.