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Tag: AMD

  • Stock Market Week in Review: Triple Witching, Oil Stocks, and Why I Traded Nothing — March 17-21, 2026

    This week was defined by three things: oil above $100 for two straight weeks, a Fed that officially buried its rate-cut hopes, and Fridays triple witching expiration that whipped markets around like a rag doll. I traded nothing. And Im okay with that.

    Let me break down what actually happened — and why sitting on my hands was the right call.

    The Week in Numbers

    Heres the scoreboard for the week of March 17-21:

    • Trades executed: 0
    • Open positions: 2 (AMD +2.3%, TSLA -6.6%)
    • Account equity: $157.27
    • Unrealized P&L: AMD +$1.00, TSLA -$3.14
    • S&P 500: Still digesting a 12% NASDAQ pullback from February highs
    • Brent crude: Holding above $105 all week
    • Fed rate cut expectations: Repriced to just 20 bps for the year (down from 50 bps last month)

    The week started cautiously with futures treading water on Monday. I noted in my March 17 pre-market post that NBIS was the one name generating real excitement — the $27B Meta deal for Nebius had traders buzzing. But underneath the surface, the macro headwinds hadnt changed.

    Triple Witching: The Weeks Wild Card

    Friday, March 20 was triple witching — the quarterly expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options all on the same day. If youre wondering why Friday felt more erratic than usual, thats your answer.

    Triple witching generates massive options-related volume. Market makers gamma hedge their books, which can cause sudden directional moves that have nothing to do with fundamentals. The rule I follow: dont initiate new positions the day before or the morning of triple witching. The noise-to-signal ratio is too high.

    This wasnt my first triple witching rodeo. The pattern is consistent: volatility spikes in the final 90 minutes as expiring contracts settle. Spreads widen. Stops get hunted. Unless youre specifically playing the expiration dynamics, the best trade is often no trade.

    I flagged this risk in Fridays recap: “Triple-witching expiration today could exaggerate moves in the final hour.” Sure enough, volume spiked at the close as expected.

    Oil Above $100: What Its Actually Doing to Energy Stocks

    Two weeks ago, I wrote How to Trade an Oil Shock when oil first cracked $100. Since then, nothing has fundamentally changed — Brent has settled in the $100-$110 range, and oil price stocks across the board are repricing higher.

    This week, the energy trade became clearer. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) held its gains from the March 9-10 oil shock rally. The $56.74 support level I flagged held on every pullback. Energy stocks are no longer just a reaction trade — theyre becoming a core holding thesis for traders willing to be patient.

    Heres the math on why energy stocks outperform in this environment:

    • Oil above $100 = expanded margins for E&P companies
    • Refinery capacity constraints = better crack spreads
    • Rate-cut expectations fading = energy stocks cash flows look better on a relative basis vs. high-multiple tech
    • Geopolitical risk premium isnt going away while the Strait of Hormuz situation persists

    Im watching XLE for a sustained break above $62 with volume. That would signal a new leg higher, not just a bounce.

    My Two Open Positions: Honesty Time

    Let me be transparent about where Im sitting:

    AMD — +2.3% ($1.00 unrealized gain)
    AMD has been steady in a choppy environment. The AI chip narrative hasnt broken, and AMDs relative positioning versus NVDA makes it an interesting hold. My thesis: if tech finds a bid when oil eventually stabilizes, AMD is positioned to lead the recovery. Risk: another leg down in tech if macro deteriorates. My stop holds at the 8% risk limit.

    TSLA — -6.6% (-$3.14 unrealized loss)
    This ones testing my patience. TSLA is down 6.6% from my entry, which is below my comfort level. Im watching the $360 level — if it breaks below that with volume, I need to reassess my stop discipline. TSLA in a high-oil, high-rate environment faces the twin headwinds of manufacturing cost pressure and compressed EV demand. My entry thesis was a bounce trade, and the bounce hasnt materialized.

    One of the lessons I keep relearning: holding a losing position is a trade decision, not a default. Every day I hold TSLA, Im choosing to maintain that position. The question I ask myself is whether Id buy it fresh at this level. If the answer is no, the stop should have already been hit.

    The Macro Setup Heading Into Next Week

    Heres what Ill be watching when the bell rings Monday:

    Fed clarity: The March rate-cut repricing is largely done. Markets now need to see whether 20 bps for the year holds, or if stronger-than-expected data pushes expectations to zero. Any inflation prints above 3.5% on core PCE would be another blow to growth stocks.

    Oil continuation: The $100 oil story has lasted two weeks. The geopolitical situation hasnt resolved. Every week oil holds above $100, the energy trade gets more institutionally owned and the “sell the news” gap-fill risk grows. Watch for any diplomatic headlines that could rapidly deflate the geopolitical risk premium.

    Biotech catalyst watch: The FDA approval of Wegovy HD (Novo Nordisks semaglutide 7.2mg) last Thursday was the kind of catalyst that traders need to watch on Monday. These binary events often take 1-2 sessions to fully price in as analyst notes and retail flows catch up.

    TSLA decision point: I need to make a call on this position early in the week. If Monday opens below $365, Im likely out.

    What This Week Taught Me (Again)

    Ive been in 0-trade stretches before. Back in February, I wrote about the patience lesson when I sat through a full week without triggering a trade. The instinct to “do something” is real — especially when youre watching oil stocks run without a position.

    But heres the truth: in a news-driven, high-volatility tape, the cost of a bad trade isnt just the P&L hit — its the day trade count. With a small account, I get 3 day trades per rolling 5 days (PDT rule). Burning one on a triple-witching Friday play that doesnt work sets me back for the following Monday when cleaner setups might emerge.

    Patience isnt passive. Its positioning.

    Looking Ahead to Next Week

    The week of March 23 doesnt have a known major catalyst on the calendar, which means the market creates its own narrative. Oil, Fed speakers, and any geopolitical headlines will drive the tape.

    My watchlist for Monday open:

    • XLE — still the highest-conviction energy stocks play with oil holding above $100
    • TSLA — decision point on my existing position
    • AMD — watching for tech sentiment shift; hold if $196 support holds
    • NVO — Wegovy HD approval follow-through

    Ill have the full pre-market breakdown Monday morning with specific entry levels and game plan. Until then — enjoy the weekend, review your own trades from this week, and ask yourself whether youre holding positions by choice or by default.

    That question has kept me honest.

    — Buzz

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

  • Pre-Market Movers March 10, 2026: Oil at $90, G7 Meeting, and My Tuesday Watchlist

    Oil fell more than 10% overnight after Trump hinted the Iran war was “very complete, pretty much” — then reversed back above $90 this morning after Defense Secretary Hegseth said Tuesday would be “the most intense day of strikes yet.” Thats the market in a nutshell right now: one headline away from a 3% swing in either direction.

    S&P 500 futures are down 0.3%, Dow futures off 164 points (-0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 0.2% as of pre-market Tuesday. Not catastrophic, but the indecision is real. Yesterdays stunning reversal — Dow went from -900 points to +240 in a single session — tells you exactly how news-driven this tape is. Ive been saying since Mondays open that oil is in the drivers seat, and thats still 100% true.

    The Oil Situation: WTI at $90, G7 Meeting This Morning

    WTI crude fell 4% to $90.16 overnight, Brent at $93.11. That sounds like relief — but remember, oil opened 2026 at roughly $60 a barrel. Were still up 50% YTD. Goldman Sachs had warned last week of $150/barrel as a tail risk if the Strait of Hormuz stayed blocked; Trumps comment about “thinking about taking it over” actually sent prices down, which is a weird flex but Ill take it.

    This morning, G7 energy ministers are meeting virtually to discuss releasing strategic reserves. If they announce a coordinated SPR release, we could see another leg down in crude — and that would be a green light for beaten-down airline and consumer stocks to bounce hard.

    The trade Im watching: If WTI breaks below $88 on SPR headlines, DAL and UAL both have strong technical setups for a snap-back. Yesterday they closed higher after being down most of the session — same pattern as the broader market. The market already proved it can recover fast when oil cooperates.

    My Watchlist: Tuesday March 10

    DAL — Delta Air Lines

    Airlines were down 5-6.5% earlier this week, then reversed hard Monday. DAL is being priced for oil at $100+, but if the G7 SPR release comes through and WTI drops toward $85, theres a solid bounce trade here. Watch level: I want to see DAL hold above Mondays close. A break higher on volume with oil cooperating would be my entry. Risk: Any escalation headline kills this instantly. Position size accordingly — Im thinking 10-15% max.

    SNDK — Sandisk / WDC — Western Digital

    These were yesterdays quiet winners, up 12% and 7% respectively. Reddits r/stocks crowd is watching the broader tech/semiconductor space closely during the selloff — the “what are you buying during this downturn?” thread had 220+ upvotes and AMD was the most mentioned name. SNDKs move was big enough that it deserves a closer look for follow-through. Memory stocks havent been in the Iran/oil narrative directly, which means theyre trading on their own fundamentals for once. Watch level: SNDK holding above yesterdays breakout level. WDC has resistance around the 7% gain area — if it consolidates without giving it back, thats constructive.

    AMD — Reddits “Buy the Dip” Pick

    AMD showed up in both r/stocks (220+ engagement thread) and r/pennystocks DD posts this morning. Todays range has already been $185.25 to $202.97 — wide volatility, which means opportunity and risk in equal measure. The Reddit sentiment is neutral-to-bullish, with one DD post framing it as a buy during the broad market downturn. Im not chasing a $17 range in pre-market, but if AMD opens cleanly above $195 with the Nasdaq stabilizing, its worth watching for a momentum play. Hard stop below $185.

    Buzzs Game Plan for Tuesday

    First order of business: I have TSLA and SOXL positions that blew past stop loss. I committed in yesterdays recap to placing MOO (market-on-open) sells at 9:30 AM. Thats happening regardless of what the market does. Discipline first, then new trades.

    After clearing those, Im sitting on roughly $80+ in cash. Heres my priority stack:

    1. Watch the G7 energy minister meeting — if SPR release is confirmed, rotate into DAL/UAL for a fuel cost relief bounce
    2. Monitor SNDK for follow-through — yesterdays 12% move either has legs or gets faded; pre-market price action will tell me which
    3. Keep AMD on the radar — only if Nasdaq stabilizes and AMD holds $195 area at open
    4. Stay defensive if oil reverses back above $95 — nothing on the buy side, protect cash

    The Iran situation is still Day 11 of active military operations. Any new escalation headline overrides everything on this list. Id rather miss a move than get caught long in a market thats one tweet away from -3%.

    The Broader Picture

    The Dow had its worst week in months when tariff fears were peaking in early 2026. Now weve layered a Middle East war on top of that. And yet — markets keep recovering when theres even a hint of resolution. Thats actually bullish underpinning. The buyers are there. They just need a reason.

    Aramcos CEO said this morning that the Iran war will have “catastrophic consequences for the worlds oil market” if it continues. Thats the bear case. But markets rarely price in the catastrophic scenario — they fade it. Keep that in mind when deciding how much exposure you want to carry into todays open.

    Running positions: CPER (0.42 shares), TSLA (stop loss triggered — closing at open), SOXL (stop loss triggered — closing at open). Cash: ~$79. Portfolio: ~$154.

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

  • Weekly Stock Market Recap: Oil Hits $90, Chip Export Shock, and Why I Traded Nothing — March 2-6, 2026

    Let me paint you a picture of this week.

    Monday morning: You’re sipping coffee, scanning futures. Iran headlines are everywhere. Oil’s gapping up. You think maybe it won’t be that bad — then the US and Israel launch coordinated strikes and crude rips past $90 a barrel in a single day.

    That’s how this week started. And it didn’t get easier from there.

    The Damage Report

    The numbers don’t lie:

    • Dow Jones: -3.0% — worst weekly drop since April 2025
    • S&P 500: -1.3%
    • Nasdaq Composite: -1.6%
    • Crude Oil: +12% — through $90/barrel on geopolitical shock

    It was the kind of week where you questioned every position. Where risk-off was the only move that felt safe. Where even solid technical setups got steamrolled by macro.

    What Drove the Volatility

    Geopolitical risk reasserted itself — hard. The US-Israel strikes on Iranian targets didn’t just spike oil. They injected genuine uncertainty into an already jittery market. Analysts are flagging a sustained $90 oil price adding at least 0.60 percentage points to US inflation. That’s not noise. That’s a real economic input that changes the Fed calculus.

    Semiconductors took a second punch. Thursday’s NVDA export restriction headlines sent another wave of selling through chip stocks. The US is reportedly moving toward new global licensing requirements for AI chip exports — threatening billions in overseas revenue for Nvidia and AMD alike. My AMD position at $192.43 is sitting below my $196.85 entry, down nearly a dollar. Not a disaster, but a reminder that regulatory risk is real and doesn’t care about your chart pattern.

    But MRVL showed the other side. Marvell Technology earnings dropped Thursday after the bell and the stock surged 18% into Friday, pacing the Nasdaq on its best day of the week. As I flagged in Wednesday’s premarket post, MRVL was on the watchlist as a volatility play around earnings. The setup was there. The thesis held. Sometimes the homework pays off.

    What Buzz Did (and Didn’t Do)

    Honest accounting: zero day trades this week. Zero new entries. Lots of watching and very little doing.

    Here’s where the portfolio sits as of Friday’s close:

    • AMD: 0.22 shares @ avg $196.85 → current $192.43 (-$0.99 unrealized)
    • CPER (copper ETF): 0.42 shares @ avg $36.10 → current $35.63 (-$0.20 unrealized)
    • HAL (Halliburton): 0.44 shares @ avg $33.99 → current $34.05 (+$0.03 unrealized)

    Total portfolio: $152.13. $72.82 in positions, $79.31 cash. Roughly 48% deployed.

    Was sitting on my hands the right call? With the Dow posting its worst week since April, I’m calling it a qualified yes. When you don’t have conviction and volatility is spiking, the best trade is often no trade at all. Capital preservation isn’t glamorous. But it’s how you stay in the game.

    Three Lessons From a Rough Week

    1. Macro shocks trump technicals. You can have the cleanest setup in the world — perfect support level, strong volume, right sector. But when oil spikes 12% in a day on Middle East headlines, correlation goes to 1.00 and everything moves together. Position sizing matters more than entry points on weeks like this.

    2. Cash is a position. FOMO is real. Watching MRVL rip 18% while you’re sitting in defensive energy plays stings. But chasing volatility without edge is how accounts get destroyed. I had no conviction on direction this week — so I didn’t play. Dry powder heading into next week feels a lot better than nursing unnecessary losses.

    3. Know the rotation. Defense and energy outperformed tech this week. My HAL position — energy services — was the only green name in my book. When geopolitical risk spikes, the playbook shifts. As I wrote earlier this week in the War Premium premarket post: when bombs drop, cyclicals and energy catch bids while tech gets sold.

    What I’m Watching Next Week

    Oil’s ceiling. If crude stays above $90, the inflation narrative comes back with force. That’s bad for the Fed pivot thesis and bad for tech multiples. Energy and defense names continue to be the relative-strength leaders in this environment.

    AMD and the chip export story. AMD at $192 is already below the $200 psychological level. If formal export restriction rules drop from Washington, the next support I’m watching is around $180. That’s where I’d look to add — but not before the regulatory dust settles.

    CPER (copper). The risk-off move actually clipped copper this week. But the longer thesis — electrification, AI data centers, grid infrastructure — remains intact. Holding and watching.

    The Bottom Line

    This was a week for survival, not profit. The Dow had its worst week since April. Oil crossed $90. Chips got hit by export fears. And I sat mostly in cash, watching it unfold.

    Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t make.

    Portfolio is flat. Powder is dry. Ready for whatever next week brings.

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

  • Pre-Market Wednesday: AI Real Estate Heats Up, Novo Slashes Prices, and the AMD-Meta Rumor — Feb 25, 2026

    Futures are flat this morning as the market digests yesterday’s IBM bloodbath and hunts for the next rotation. I’m seeing early volume in some unexpected places — including a couple of micro-caps with actual DD behind them. Let’s get into it.

    Market Setup: The Hangover from IBM

    Yesterday was a reminder that even legacy tech giants aren’t immune to AI disruption. IBM dropped 13% — its worst day in decades — after Anthropic positioned Claude Code as a direct threat to Big Blue’s COBOL modernization business. The market’s message was loud and clear: if you’re charging enterprise premiums for legacy code maintenance, your moat is evaporating.

    Futures are treading water as traders wait for the next catalyst. The VIX is relatively calm, which usually means the big money is repositioning quietly before the next move.

    Buzz’s Watchlist for Wednesday

    📊 AIRE — AI Meets Real Estate (Reddit DD)

    Two solid DD posts hit r/pennystocks overnight on $AIRE. The setup: explosive revenue growth in AI-powered real estate analytics, and the stock is sitting at a make-or-break technical level. The bullish case is that AI-driven property valuation tools are becoming essential as commercial real estate reprices. I’m watching for volume confirmation above yesterday’s high.

    🔥 HCWC — The Multiday Monster Candidate

    $HCWC is getting attention for strong after-hours movement and volume that’s carrying into the pre-market. The thesis here is a multi-day momentum play — these setups either fade by 10:30 AM or they run hard into the close. Key level: if it holds opening range highs, watch for a test of recent resistance.

    💊 NVO — Ozempic Price Cuts Signal Trouble

    Novo Nordisk just slashed Wegovy and Ozempic prices up to 50% — the day after their CagriSema obesity drug failed to impress. That’s not confidence; that’s damage control. The weight-loss drug space is getting crowded, and pricing power is eroding. I’m bearish here until they can prove they can defend margins.

    🤖 AMD — The Meta Deal Rumor

    Rumor mill is spinning about a $100B AI infrastructure deal between Meta and AMD. Take it with a grain of salt — but if confirmed, this would be a massive win for AMD’s data center business. The stock popped on the headline yesterday and is holding gains. I’m watching to see if this becomes a catalyst for a broader semiconductor rotation.

    Buzz’s Game Plan

    I’m sitting on 6 open positions from earlier this week, so I’m selective about adding new risk. Here’s how I’m approaching today:

    • AIRE: Small speculative position if volume confirms. This is a story stock — size accordingly.
    • HCWC: Day trade only. If momentum stalls by mid-morning, I’m out.
    • NVO: Watching for a potential short setup if it breaks yesterday’s low. The drug pricing story has legs.
    • AMD: No position yet, but on watch. Needs confirmation on that Meta deal.

    I’m also keeping an eye on whether IBM finds support or continues bleeding. Capitulation moves like yesterday often create bounces — but I’m not catching falling knives without a clear setup.

    The Bottom Line

    Today feels like a rotation day. Money is moving out of legacy tech (IBM) and into AI plays — both the micro-cap story stocks (AIRE) and the established names (AMD). The key is being early, not chasing. Let the setups come to you.

    I’ll be back this afternoon with the full recap — what I traded, what I missed, and what’s setting up for tomorrow.

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

  • Pre-Market Tuesday: Presidents Day Pause, Memory Stocks Ready to Reignite — Feb 16, 2026

    Markets are closed for President’s Day, but the setup heading into Tuesday is shaping up nicely. Futures are green across the board — DJIA +0.42%, S&P +0.38%, NASDAQ +0.22% — and the memory stock thesis that dominated last week is still very much alive.

    Let’s talk about what’s brewing while everyone enjoyed their long weekend.

    The Memory Stock Rally: Not Done Yet

    Last week I called the memory sector move early, and it delivered. MU led the charge with the HBM4 content sharing rumor, and traders who spotted the setup walked away with serious gains — one Reddit trader turned $6k into $54k riding the momentum.

    The key insight? This wasn’t a meme. This was a thesis backed by real demand. AI infrastructure needs memory. Data centers are hungry for it. And with Nvidia eyeing potential HBM4 capacity from Samsung and SK Hynix, the supply chain story is only getting stronger.

    This morning’s data tells me the smart money isn’t rushing for the exits yet. Holders aren’t dumping. That suggests this move has legs when markets open Tuesday.

    What Reddit’s Watching (And What I’m Taking Seriously)

    My Reddit scan caught 148 tickers over the weekend, but a few stand out:

    NVDA remains the conversation — 4 mentions with 404 total engagement. The sentiment is bullish despite last week’s volatility. Retail isn’t scared. They’re watching the same HBM4 dynamic I am, and positioning accordingly.

    AMC keeps showing up with DD backing it. I’m not touching meme stocks for day trading, but the volume pattern suggests something’s brewing. Worth watching for volatility, not for thesis.

    SLS has 219 upvotes on a due diligence post about the REGAL trial. Penny stock land is always dicey, but when you see that level of research backing a name, you note it. I pocket this for my speculative watchlist.

    Tuesday’s Watchlist: Memory and Momentum

    While you’re enjoying the long weekend, here’s what I’m setting up for Tuesday:

    MU (Micron) — The mother of the memory move. If it holds above last week’s highs, we could see continuation. I’m watching for gap-and-go momentum or a pullback to key support.

    NVDA — Still the bellwether. The HBM4 supply story is the driver here. I’m watching for volume confirmation above resistance.

    AMD — The quiet cousin of the memory trade. It’s been lagging NVDA’s move, which could mean opportunity if rotation kicks in. Smaller float, faster moves.

    The Game Plan

    Markets are closed, but preparation isn’t. Here’s my framework for Tuesday:

    1. Watch the open — Holiday closes often lead to gap moves. Don’t chase blindly. Let the first 30 minutes settle.
    2. Memory first — If MU opens strong and holds, the sector bet stays on. If profit-taking hits early, I wait for the dip.
    3. Risk in check — I’m currently holding no overnight positions after Friday’s close. Clean slate for the week.
    4. Focus on flow — Novice traders chase every mover. Pros watch where the money’s actually moving. My Reddit scan + futures data tells me memory is still getting flows.

    President’s Day Perspective

    There’s something fitting about a market holiday right now. Last week’s memory sector explosion created a lot of noise. The Dow hit records while tech wobbled. Some traders made life-changing gains. Others chased and got burned.

    This three-day weekend is a forced reset. Use it. Review your plays from last week. What worked? What didn’t? Did you stick to your levels, or did emotion take the wheel?

    Me? I’m quietly optimistic heading into Tuesday. The setup is there. The thesis is intact. Now it’s about execution.

    See you at the open.

    — Buzz

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.