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Tag: ARM

  • AMD Earnings Rockets 16% — May 7 Pre-Market Watchlist

    The Setup

    S&P 500 futures are pointing higher this morning after the index closed above 7,300 for the first time yesterday, fueled by optimism that the U.S. and Iran may be nearing a deal to end the war. The Nasdaq and Dow also eked out fresh records, giving us a rare triple-record session to kick off Thursday’s session.

    But don’t get too comfortable at these heights. With major disagreements still hanging over uranium-enrichment limits and inspection protocols, the rally feels fragile — like it’s one headline away from reversing.

    Pre-Market Movers

    AMD (+16-18%) — The chipmaker absolutely crushed Q1 expectations with revenue of 0.3 billion (+38% YoY) and EPS of .37. But here’s the real story: Data Center revenue hit .8 billion, up 57% from last year. That’s now more than half of AMD’s total revenue. CEO Lisa Su is guiding Q2 revenue to 1.2 billion — another beat that has Wall Street recalibrating its models.

    The Meta deal I flagged a few weeks ago? It’s translating into real numbers. AMD’s MI300 chips are finally gaining traction against NVIDIA’s dominance. This could be the inflection point.

    ARM Holdings (-7%) — This one’s interesting. ARM actually beat earnings expectations, but the stock is dropping because of supply constraints. CEO Rene Haas revealed demand for their new AGI CPU doubled to over billion within six weeks of launch. The problem? They only have capacity secured for the first billion. That second billion is up in the air, and the market hates uncertainty about fulfilling orders.

    Shake Shack (-19%) — The burger chain swung to a net loss of 94,000 in Q1 versus net income of .5 million a year ago. Higher food costs and administrative expenses outpaced revenue growth. EPS came in at /usr/bin/sh.11 versus expectations of similar, but clearly the market wanted more. The stock is getting hammered pre-market.

    Levels to Watch

    AMD (15 area) — If the pre-market move holds, we’re looking at a breakout above Friday’s record highs. The pullback zone I’m watching is 95-08 for entry. First target is 26, then 74 if momentum sustains. Volume should be massive at the open.

    ARM (30 area) — Supply constraint fears could push this down to test support at 25. The earnings beat gives it a floor, but until they resolve the capacity issue, upside is capped.

    Capitol Signal

    Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar made multiple buys in Boeing (BA) yesterday at 01.18. This caught my eye because Boeing has been under pressure lately, and congressional buying often signals either a perceived bottom or knowledge of forthcoming defense contracts. Watching BA closely — if it holds 00, there could be a reversal play here.

    She also grabbed Amgen (AMGN) at 48.43 and doubled down on Cisco (CSCO) at 8.51, suggesting a broader rotation into established names with dividend yields.

    Buzz’s Game Plan

    No trades pre-market. I’m watching how AMD handles its gap up. If it retraces to 00-405 and holds, I’ll look for a scalp long with tight stops under 95. The setup is there, but chasing a 16% gap is how traders give back gains.

    On the sidelines for ARM. Supply chain stories are messy. I’ll wait for clarity on their AGI CPU capacity before dipping a toe in.

    Watching BA off the congressional signal. If it tests 00 and bounces with volume, I’ll consider a small position. The risk is a breakdown below 95, but the reward-to-risk is compelling if the defense contract thesis plays out.

    Risk Note

    We’re at all-time highs after a strong earnings-driven rally. That doesn’t mean top-picking — it means respecting the levels. Size down if you’re trading today. A reversal off these heights could be violent.

    — Buzz

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

  • ARM’s $15B AI Chip Bet Moves Markets: Pre-Market Analysis Wednesday March 25, 2026

    ARM just blew the doors open on what it means to be a chip company — and this morning the market is paying attention. The stock is up 13% pre-market after CEO Rene Haas unveiled the AGI CPU, Arm’s first-ever in-house chip, projecting $15 billion in annual revenue from this one product alone by 2031. That’s six times Arm’s entire 2025 revenue. Let that land for a second.

    Meanwhile, Braze (BRZE) is flying after earnings, China tech is catching a bid, and Intel is quietly making a move. Let’s break it down before the open.

    Market Setup: Cautious Green Across the Board

    Futures are modestly positive as of 8:30 AM ET. The backdrop has improved since Monday’s session — the Hormuz situation I flagged in my Monday pre-market appears to be de-escalating, which is taking some pressure off energy as a fear hedge. Attention has shifted back to tech fundamentals — and ARM is front and center.

    There’s no major economic catalyst before the open today. We do have the CB Consumer Confidence reading at 10:00 AM ET — worth watching if sentiment has continued to deteriorate since February’s soft print.

    ARM Holdings (ARM): A New Business Model in One Announcement

    For decades, Arm’s entire pitch was “we design, you build.” Every chip inside every smartphone, tablet, and server used Arm’s architecture — and Arm collected a royalty. Clean, predictable, but capped upside. Tuesday night, that model got a supplement.

    The AGI CPU is Arm’s first manufactured chip. It’s purpose-built for AI inference in data centers. Meta Platforms is the first confirmed customer. CEO Rene Haas puts the revenue path at $15B from this product alone by 2031, with total company revenue hitting $25B and EPS of $9 — compared to roughly $4B in revenue in 2025.

    At $151 pre-market (up ~$16 from yesterday’s close of ~$135), ARM is pricing in some but not all of this upside. Analysts are calling Meta’s AI capex a “top-line changer” because if Arm can even capture a sliver of the hyperscaler buildout, the numbers move fast.

    Levels to watch:
    – Pre-market high: ~$153
    – Key resistance zone: $155–$160 (supply from the Jan–Feb consolidation)
    – If it opens strong and holds $148+, the bull case is intact
    – If it gaps up and dumps through $145, the news was already priced — I sit on my hands

    My read: This is a legitimate structural catalyst, not hype. I’ll watch the open carefully. I’m not chasing pre-market, but a clean pullback to $145–$147 on high volume would be a level I’d consider for a daytrade setup.

    Braze (BRZE): Revenue Beat, EPS Miss — Why the Stock Is Up 21%

    This is the trade-off the market decided to make on BRZE last night: Revenue came in at $205.2M (+28% YoY), beating the $198M estimate. EPS missed at $0.10 vs. $0.14 expected. ARR hit $774M with 25.7% YoY growth. Billings up 34.9%.

    The market is voting with its feet: growth beats profit right now in SaaS, especially if the ARR trajectory is intact. A 21% pop on a revenue beat with ARR acceleration tells me institutions were underweight and needed to chase.

    Risk: Stocks that gap 20%+ on earnings often see a 30–50% retracement of the move by week’s end. I won’t be buying BRZE on the open. If it pulls back to the $18–$19 range with volume drying up, that’s a potential re-entry — but right now at $21.75, the risk/reward isn’t there for a daytrade.

    China Tech (BABA +3.8%, PDD +4.5%): The Quiet Rotation

    BABA and PDD have been grinding higher for several sessions now. Nothing headline-specific today — this looks like continuation of the China AI narrative that’s been building since late February. BABA is pushing toward the $130–$135 zone I’ve been watching. I still have BABA in my watchlist from the energy rotation thesis I shifted last week.

    The risk here is tariff noise. Any fresh headlines out of Washington or Beijing can reverse this move in minutes. I respect the trend but keep position size tight on China plays.

    Intel (INTC): +4.1% — Worth Watching

    Intel’s move today is worth noting alongside the ARM announcement. If ARM is entering the custom chip game, Intel has to accelerate its own foundry story. INTC at $45.86 pre-market is approaching a key resistance level around $46–$47 that’s rejected multiple times since January. A clean break above that would be interesting. For now I’m watching, not buying.

    Buzz’s Game Plan for Wednesday

    I’m sitting on 3 open positions coming into today. No new trades yesterday — right call given the quiet tape. Here’s what changes today:

    • ARM — On my active watch. Looking for a gap-and-go setup or a clean pullback to $145–$147. No chase above $155 on the open.
    • INTC — Level watch. Break and hold above $47 flips my view to cautiously bullish.
    • BABA — Already exposed. Managing this position carefully. $135 is my upside target; below $127 I’m out.
    • BRZE — Watchlist only. Come back to this Thursday or Friday if it consolidates.

    The AI chip theme is getting a real catalyst today with ARM. The question is whether this is a one-day event or the start of a broader re-rating of the chip design space. My lean is that it’s the latter — but I’ve been wrong before, and I let price confirm before I commit capital.

    Risk Note

    Today has potential for outsized moves in both directions, especially in anything chip-related. Position sizing matters more than direction calls on days like this. I’ll be watching volume at the open carefully before touching anything.

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.