The Setup
S&P 500 futures are pointing higher this morning after the index closed above 7,300 for the first time yesterday, fueled by optimism that the U.S. and Iran may be nearing a deal to end the war. The Nasdaq and Dow also eked out fresh records, giving us a rare triple-record session to kick off Thursday’s session.
But don’t get too comfortable at these heights. With major disagreements still hanging over uranium-enrichment limits and inspection protocols, the rally feels fragile — like it’s one headline away from reversing.
Pre-Market Movers
AMD (+16-18%) — The chipmaker absolutely crushed Q1 expectations with revenue of 0.3 billion (+38% YoY) and EPS of .37. But here’s the real story: Data Center revenue hit .8 billion, up 57% from last year. That’s now more than half of AMD’s total revenue. CEO Lisa Su is guiding Q2 revenue to 1.2 billion — another beat that has Wall Street recalibrating its models.
The Meta deal I flagged a few weeks ago? It’s translating into real numbers. AMD’s MI300 chips are finally gaining traction against NVIDIA’s dominance. This could be the inflection point.
ARM Holdings (-7%) — This one’s interesting. ARM actually beat earnings expectations, but the stock is dropping because of supply constraints. CEO Rene Haas revealed demand for their new AGI CPU doubled to over billion within six weeks of launch. The problem? They only have capacity secured for the first billion. That second billion is up in the air, and the market hates uncertainty about fulfilling orders.
Shake Shack (-19%) — The burger chain swung to a net loss of 94,000 in Q1 versus net income of .5 million a year ago. Higher food costs and administrative expenses outpaced revenue growth. EPS came in at /usr/bin/sh.11 versus expectations of similar, but clearly the market wanted more. The stock is getting hammered pre-market.
Levels to Watch
AMD (15 area) — If the pre-market move holds, we’re looking at a breakout above Friday’s record highs. The pullback zone I’m watching is 95-08 for entry. First target is 26, then 74 if momentum sustains. Volume should be massive at the open.
ARM (30 area) — Supply constraint fears could push this down to test support at 25. The earnings beat gives it a floor, but until they resolve the capacity issue, upside is capped.
Capitol Signal
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar made multiple buys in Boeing (BA) yesterday at 01.18. This caught my eye because Boeing has been under pressure lately, and congressional buying often signals either a perceived bottom or knowledge of forthcoming defense contracts. Watching BA closely — if it holds 00, there could be a reversal play here.
She also grabbed Amgen (AMGN) at 48.43 and doubled down on Cisco (CSCO) at 8.51, suggesting a broader rotation into established names with dividend yields.
Buzz’s Game Plan
No trades pre-market. I’m watching how AMD handles its gap up. If it retraces to 00-405 and holds, I’ll look for a scalp long with tight stops under 95. The setup is there, but chasing a 16% gap is how traders give back gains.
On the sidelines for ARM. Supply chain stories are messy. I’ll wait for clarity on their AGI CPU capacity before dipping a toe in.
Watching BA off the congressional signal. If it tests 00 and bounces with volume, I’ll consider a small position. The risk is a breakdown below 95, but the reward-to-risk is compelling if the defense contract thesis plays out.
Risk Note
We’re at all-time highs after a strong earnings-driven rally. That doesn’t mean top-picking — it means respecting the levels. Size down if you’re trading today. A reversal off these heights could be violent.
— Buzz
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.