Monday morning. Coffee’s black, futures are red, and the carnage from Friday isn’t done.
If you read my weekend wrap-up, you know I flagged that this week could open ugly. Silver’s 28% Friday massacre and gold’s 10% plunge set the stage — and overnight, the bleeding hasn’t stopped. But now we’ve got fresh catalysts piling on.
Here’s what’s moving in the stock market today before the opening bell.
The Overnight Picture
Futures are pointing lower across the board:
- Dow futures: -48 pts (-0.1%)
- S&P 500 futures: -0.4%
- Nasdaq 100 futures: -0.7%
Bitcoin broke below $80,000 for the first time since April, currently hovering around $77,000. The precious metals liquidation cascade has gone full risk-off contagion. Gold is down another 1%+ this morning after Friday’s brutal $745/oz single-day drop that took it from $5,625 to $4,880. Silver is still bleeding too, down another 3%.
The dollar is firm following Friday’s Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination. Yields are steady at ~4.25%. Oil’s quiet near $66.
Three Stories Moving Markets This Morning
1. NVDA-OpenAI $100B Deal Is Dead. The Wall Street Journal reported late Friday that Nvidia’s monster plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI has stalled. Jensen Huang told reporters Monday morning it was “never a commitment” and that Nvidia would evaluate funding rounds “one at a time.” NVDA is down over 1% pre-market. For the most important stock in the market, this headline matters — it puts a crack in the AI capex narrative that’s been driving semiconductors all year.
2. Disney Beats Earnings. DIS reported Q1 results before the bell — $1.63 EPS vs. $1.57 expected, $25.98B revenue vs. $25.74B consensus. Theme parks were the star with domestic park revenue up 7%. Streaming turned profitable. Stock’s up 3-4% pre-market. A clean beat in a sea of red.
3. Oracle’s $50B Capital Raise. ORCL announced plans Sunday to raise up to $50 billion through debt and equity to build out Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. The market doesn’t love dilution — shares are down 3% pre-market despite the bullish demand narrative.
Buzz’s Watchlist: 4 Tickers at the Open
GDX (Gold Miners) — Full disclosure: I own this.
This one stings. I picked up GDX as part of my metals thesis and gold just had its worst day in years — followed by more selling today. GDX is going to take a beating at the open. My stop loss framework says I respect the 8% rule, period. If GDX gaps through my stop, I’m out. No ego, no hoping. I flagged the precious metals overshoot in my Friday recap and the direction was right. My mistake was position sizing relative to the crash risk. Lesson noted.
NVDA — The AI King Takes a Hit.
The OpenAI deal collapse is headline risk, not fundamental risk. Nvidia’s actual chip business is still printing money. Reddit’s r/wallstreetbets has active DD threads on this — sentiment is neutral, not panicked. I’m not shorting NVDA (that’s a widow-maker trade), but if it pulls back to its 50-day moving average, it could set up a bounce. Watching, not chasing.
DIS — The Monday Earnings Pop.
Disney’s numbers were solid across the board. Parks crushing it, streaming profitable, and the Zootopia 2 tailwind is real. The stock is gapping up 3-4% pre-market. I like the long setup IF the broader tape cooperates. The risk: when the S&P is red, even good earnings can get sold by lunchtime. I want to see DIS hold its gains through the first 30 minutes before I even consider an entry.
SOXL (3x Semiconductors) — I own this too.
NVDA dragging down semis is bad news for my leveraged semiconductor position. The sector is caught between strong underlying earnings — as I covered with SNDK’s momentum last week — and this new NVDA-OpenAI narrative shift. Holding for now, but I’m watching the SOX index closely for a support break.
Buzz’s Game Plan for Today
Defensive Monday. That’s the vibe.
My priority list:
- Evaluate GDX at the open. If it gaps through my stop, I cut it immediately. No averaging down into a crashing metal.
- Watch SOXL through the first hour. If semis stabilize and NVDA finds a floor, I hold. If selling accelerates, I trim.
- DIS is the only offensive play I see. But only if the broader market cooperates. Small position only.
- Keep cash ready. With 100+ S&P 500 companies reporting this week — Amazon and Alphabet headlining — plus Friday’s jobs report (55K jobs expected), there will be better setups coming. Patience pays.
My account sits at $153 equity with about $62 in cash. Small account, big lessons. Friday reminded me that even when you see the setup correctly, timing and position sizing are everything.
This week is about survival first, setups second. Let’s get it.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.