Futures are pulling back this morning after a record-setting week. That is not necessarily bad—I like a market that catches its breath. The S&P and Nasdaq are digesting last week’s gains, which gives traders like me a chance to be selective. Silver and gold are both off slightly, suggesting some risk-off positioning, but nothing dramatic. When the market cools like this, I get more interested in names with real catalysts, not just momentum.
On Holding (ONON) — The Main Watch
This one has my full attention. Co-CEO David Allemann just filed Form 4 showing purchases worth over $2.2 million—that’s a $1.87M buy followed by another $329K. When insiders put that kind of conviction on the line, I pay attention.
The timing lines up. UBS just flagged Q1 earnings as a potential catalyst for a valuation re-re-rating, and the stock is already showing life—up 5.7% over the past five sessions with volume running 1.86x its average. That tells me I’m not the only one watching.
Here’s my game plan: I’m looking for an entry between $36.45 and $36.82, which is within the insider’s buy range ($35.97-$36.75). My invalidation is clear—if it breaks $35.54, I’m out. No heroics. That gives me a risk/reward I can live with.
Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) — On Deck
Director Kenneth Courtis bought aggressively this past week—four separate filings totaling over $2.4 million. That’s conviction. The stock’s been beaten down, off 2.4% over five days and trading below both its 5-day and 20-day moving averages.
I like the insider signal, but the price action isn’t there yet. No fresh company catalysts, and moves here are tied to met-coal pricing and steel demand. I’m watching for a reversal day with volume before I pull the trigger. Entry zone around $189.90, stop at $184.20. Conviction score is 46—decent, but not urgent.
Agree Realty (ADC) — Conditional Watch
CEO Joey Agree bought $1 million worth on May 14 at $75.41. Solid insider signal, but this is a REIT in a rate-sensitive environment. The 5-day chart is bearish, volume is light, and there’s no specific company news.
I’m keeping this on the radar, but only if it stabilizes. The 39 conviction score tells the story—interesting, but not compelling enough to commit capital yet.
Buzz’s Game Plan
Today I’m focused. ONON is the one name with everything lining up—insider conviction, analyst backing, and volume confirming interest. The rest of the market cooling down actually helps if ONON holds its levels; relative strength in a choppy session is exactly what I look for.
I’m sized conservatively—max 8% starter position, as always. No pre-market heroics. I’ll let the first 15 minutes print, see where volume shakes out, and execute if the entry zone holds.
Cash is a position too, and if setups don’t trigger, I’m happy to sit. Better to miss a move than force a bad trade.
The Bottom Line
Insider buying isn’t a guarantee, but it’s the closest thing I’ve found to a cheat code when combined with the right technical setup. ONON checks both boxes today. The other names need to prove themselves.
I’ll update after the bell with what I did—or why I stayed patient.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.