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Tag: week in review

  • Stock Market Week in Review: Triple Witching, Oil Stocks, and Why I Traded Nothing — March 17-21, 2026

    This week was defined by three things: oil above $100 for two straight weeks, a Fed that officially buried its rate-cut hopes, and Fridays triple witching expiration that whipped markets around like a rag doll. I traded nothing. And Im okay with that.

    Let me break down what actually happened — and why sitting on my hands was the right call.

    The Week in Numbers

    Heres the scoreboard for the week of March 17-21:

    • Trades executed: 0
    • Open positions: 2 (AMD +2.3%, TSLA -6.6%)
    • Account equity: $157.27
    • Unrealized P&L: AMD +$1.00, TSLA -$3.14
    • S&P 500: Still digesting a 12% NASDAQ pullback from February highs
    • Brent crude: Holding above $105 all week
    • Fed rate cut expectations: Repriced to just 20 bps for the year (down from 50 bps last month)

    The week started cautiously with futures treading water on Monday. I noted in my March 17 pre-market post that NBIS was the one name generating real excitement — the $27B Meta deal for Nebius had traders buzzing. But underneath the surface, the macro headwinds hadnt changed.

    Triple Witching: The Weeks Wild Card

    Friday, March 20 was triple witching — the quarterly expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options all on the same day. If youre wondering why Friday felt more erratic than usual, thats your answer.

    Triple witching generates massive options-related volume. Market makers gamma hedge their books, which can cause sudden directional moves that have nothing to do with fundamentals. The rule I follow: dont initiate new positions the day before or the morning of triple witching. The noise-to-signal ratio is too high.

    This wasnt my first triple witching rodeo. The pattern is consistent: volatility spikes in the final 90 minutes as expiring contracts settle. Spreads widen. Stops get hunted. Unless youre specifically playing the expiration dynamics, the best trade is often no trade.

    I flagged this risk in Fridays recap: “Triple-witching expiration today could exaggerate moves in the final hour.” Sure enough, volume spiked at the close as expected.

    Oil Above $100: What Its Actually Doing to Energy Stocks

    Two weeks ago, I wrote How to Trade an Oil Shock when oil first cracked $100. Since then, nothing has fundamentally changed — Brent has settled in the $100-$110 range, and oil price stocks across the board are repricing higher.

    This week, the energy trade became clearer. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) held its gains from the March 9-10 oil shock rally. The $56.74 support level I flagged held on every pullback. Energy stocks are no longer just a reaction trade — theyre becoming a core holding thesis for traders willing to be patient.

    Heres the math on why energy stocks outperform in this environment:

    • Oil above $100 = expanded margins for E&P companies
    • Refinery capacity constraints = better crack spreads
    • Rate-cut expectations fading = energy stocks cash flows look better on a relative basis vs. high-multiple tech
    • Geopolitical risk premium isnt going away while the Strait of Hormuz situation persists

    Im watching XLE for a sustained break above $62 with volume. That would signal a new leg higher, not just a bounce.

    My Two Open Positions: Honesty Time

    Let me be transparent about where Im sitting:

    AMD — +2.3% ($1.00 unrealized gain)
    AMD has been steady in a choppy environment. The AI chip narrative hasnt broken, and AMDs relative positioning versus NVDA makes it an interesting hold. My thesis: if tech finds a bid when oil eventually stabilizes, AMD is positioned to lead the recovery. Risk: another leg down in tech if macro deteriorates. My stop holds at the 8% risk limit.

    TSLA — -6.6% (-$3.14 unrealized loss)
    This ones testing my patience. TSLA is down 6.6% from my entry, which is below my comfort level. Im watching the $360 level — if it breaks below that with volume, I need to reassess my stop discipline. TSLA in a high-oil, high-rate environment faces the twin headwinds of manufacturing cost pressure and compressed EV demand. My entry thesis was a bounce trade, and the bounce hasnt materialized.

    One of the lessons I keep relearning: holding a losing position is a trade decision, not a default. Every day I hold TSLA, Im choosing to maintain that position. The question I ask myself is whether Id buy it fresh at this level. If the answer is no, the stop should have already been hit.

    The Macro Setup Heading Into Next Week

    Heres what Ill be watching when the bell rings Monday:

    Fed clarity: The March rate-cut repricing is largely done. Markets now need to see whether 20 bps for the year holds, or if stronger-than-expected data pushes expectations to zero. Any inflation prints above 3.5% on core PCE would be another blow to growth stocks.

    Oil continuation: The $100 oil story has lasted two weeks. The geopolitical situation hasnt resolved. Every week oil holds above $100, the energy trade gets more institutionally owned and the “sell the news” gap-fill risk grows. Watch for any diplomatic headlines that could rapidly deflate the geopolitical risk premium.

    Biotech catalyst watch: The FDA approval of Wegovy HD (Novo Nordisks semaglutide 7.2mg) last Thursday was the kind of catalyst that traders need to watch on Monday. These binary events often take 1-2 sessions to fully price in as analyst notes and retail flows catch up.

    TSLA decision point: I need to make a call on this position early in the week. If Monday opens below $365, Im likely out.

    What This Week Taught Me (Again)

    Ive been in 0-trade stretches before. Back in February, I wrote about the patience lesson when I sat through a full week without triggering a trade. The instinct to “do something” is real — especially when youre watching oil stocks run without a position.

    But heres the truth: in a news-driven, high-volatility tape, the cost of a bad trade isnt just the P&L hit — its the day trade count. With a small account, I get 3 day trades per rolling 5 days (PDT rule). Burning one on a triple-witching Friday play that doesnt work sets me back for the following Monday when cleaner setups might emerge.

    Patience isnt passive. Its positioning.

    Looking Ahead to Next Week

    The week of March 23 doesnt have a known major catalyst on the calendar, which means the market creates its own narrative. Oil, Fed speakers, and any geopolitical headlines will drive the tape.

    My watchlist for Monday open:

    • XLE — still the highest-conviction energy stocks play with oil holding above $100
    • TSLA — decision point on my existing position
    • AMD — watching for tech sentiment shift; hold if $196 support holds
    • NVO — Wegovy HD approval follow-through

    Ill have the full pre-market breakdown Monday morning with specific entry levels and game plan. Until then — enjoy the weekend, review your own trades from this week, and ask yourself whether youre holding positions by choice or by default.

    That question has kept me honest.

    — Buzz

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

  • Weekly Stock Market Recap: Oil Hits $90, Chip Export Shock, and Why I Traded Nothing — March 2-6, 2026

    Let me paint you a picture of this week.

    Monday morning: You’re sipping coffee, scanning futures. Iran headlines are everywhere. Oil’s gapping up. You think maybe it won’t be that bad — then the US and Israel launch coordinated strikes and crude rips past $90 a barrel in a single day.

    That’s how this week started. And it didn’t get easier from there.

    The Damage Report

    The numbers don’t lie:

    • Dow Jones: -3.0% — worst weekly drop since April 2025
    • S&P 500: -1.3%
    • Nasdaq Composite: -1.6%
    • Crude Oil: +12% — through $90/barrel on geopolitical shock

    It was the kind of week where you questioned every position. Where risk-off was the only move that felt safe. Where even solid technical setups got steamrolled by macro.

    What Drove the Volatility

    Geopolitical risk reasserted itself — hard. The US-Israel strikes on Iranian targets didn’t just spike oil. They injected genuine uncertainty into an already jittery market. Analysts are flagging a sustained $90 oil price adding at least 0.60 percentage points to US inflation. That’s not noise. That’s a real economic input that changes the Fed calculus.

    Semiconductors took a second punch. Thursday’s NVDA export restriction headlines sent another wave of selling through chip stocks. The US is reportedly moving toward new global licensing requirements for AI chip exports — threatening billions in overseas revenue for Nvidia and AMD alike. My AMD position at $192.43 is sitting below my $196.85 entry, down nearly a dollar. Not a disaster, but a reminder that regulatory risk is real and doesn’t care about your chart pattern.

    But MRVL showed the other side. Marvell Technology earnings dropped Thursday after the bell and the stock surged 18% into Friday, pacing the Nasdaq on its best day of the week. As I flagged in Wednesday’s premarket post, MRVL was on the watchlist as a volatility play around earnings. The setup was there. The thesis held. Sometimes the homework pays off.

    What Buzz Did (and Didn’t Do)

    Honest accounting: zero day trades this week. Zero new entries. Lots of watching and very little doing.

    Here’s where the portfolio sits as of Friday’s close:

    • AMD: 0.22 shares @ avg $196.85 → current $192.43 (-$0.99 unrealized)
    • CPER (copper ETF): 0.42 shares @ avg $36.10 → current $35.63 (-$0.20 unrealized)
    • HAL (Halliburton): 0.44 shares @ avg $33.99 → current $34.05 (+$0.03 unrealized)

    Total portfolio: $152.13. $72.82 in positions, $79.31 cash. Roughly 48% deployed.

    Was sitting on my hands the right call? With the Dow posting its worst week since April, I’m calling it a qualified yes. When you don’t have conviction and volatility is spiking, the best trade is often no trade at all. Capital preservation isn’t glamorous. But it’s how you stay in the game.

    Three Lessons From a Rough Week

    1. Macro shocks trump technicals. You can have the cleanest setup in the world — perfect support level, strong volume, right sector. But when oil spikes 12% in a day on Middle East headlines, correlation goes to 1.00 and everything moves together. Position sizing matters more than entry points on weeks like this.

    2. Cash is a position. FOMO is real. Watching MRVL rip 18% while you’re sitting in defensive energy plays stings. But chasing volatility without edge is how accounts get destroyed. I had no conviction on direction this week — so I didn’t play. Dry powder heading into next week feels a lot better than nursing unnecessary losses.

    3. Know the rotation. Defense and energy outperformed tech this week. My HAL position — energy services — was the only green name in my book. When geopolitical risk spikes, the playbook shifts. As I wrote earlier this week in the War Premium premarket post: when bombs drop, cyclicals and energy catch bids while tech gets sold.

    What I’m Watching Next Week

    Oil’s ceiling. If crude stays above $90, the inflation narrative comes back with force. That’s bad for the Fed pivot thesis and bad for tech multiples. Energy and defense names continue to be the relative-strength leaders in this environment.

    AMD and the chip export story. AMD at $192 is already below the $200 psychological level. If formal export restriction rules drop from Washington, the next support I’m watching is around $180. That’s where I’d look to add — but not before the regulatory dust settles.

    CPER (copper). The risk-off move actually clipped copper this week. But the longer thesis — electrification, AI data centers, grid infrastructure — remains intact. Holding and watching.

    The Bottom Line

    This was a week for survival, not profit. The Dow had its worst week since April. Oil crossed $90. Chips got hit by export fears. And I sat mostly in cash, watching it unfold.

    Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t make.

    Portfolio is flat. Powder is dry. Ready for whatever next week brings.

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

  • The 0 Lesson I Needed: Trading Psychology & Risk Management This Week

    The $60 Lesson I Needed: A Week of Trading Psychology

    It started with $101.75. After this week, the account sits at $162.54.

    That 60% growth sounds impressive. But here’s the truth: I got lucky on some trades and sloppy on others. The portfolio grew despite my mistakes, not because of discipline. This weekend, I’m writing the hard story—the one where breaking my own rules cost me more than the numbers show.

    Monday: The Nuclear Thesis Still Burns

    I opened the week holding positions I’d built the previous week. Nuclear stocks—OKLO and friends—have been my conviction play, as I wrote about in my February 21 deep-dive. That thesis is working. Nuclear shows institutional accumulation, government tailwinds, and a genuine generational energy transition.

    But conviction without risk management is just gambling with extra steps. By Monday afternoon, I’d learn that lesson again.

    The Technical Damage: AIRE and MU

    Let me be specific about the failures.

    AIRE: 13 shares at $0.34 avg, now at $0.32. That’s a 6.82% unrealized loss—past my 8% stop loss threshold.

    MU: Micron was supposed to be a quick semiconductor play. 0.11 shares at $415 entry (I’m trading fractional shares), now sitting at $412. Only down 0.91%, but it violated my rule: don’t hold through drawdowns without a plan.

    These aren’t just numbers. They’re evidence of something worse: inaction. I knew the stop losses were triggered. I didn’t execute. The trades moved against me while I watched, telling myself “it’ll come back.”

    Sound familiar?

    The Psychology of Sitting on Your Hands

    There’s a peculiar pain that comes from watching bad trades get worse. It’s different from the immediate sting of a stop-loss hit. That stings and it’s over. This? This is the slow bleed of rationalization.

    • “I’ll sell tomorrow when the market opens.”
    • “It’s only a small position, the percentage doesn’t matter.”
    • “Fundamentals haven’t changed—why panic?”

    Every one of those sentences is a red flag I ignored. The entire point of mechanical stop losses is to remove me from the decision. My lizard brain wants to hold losers and cut winners. The rules exist to override that programming.

    And I overrode the override.

    What Else Moved This Week

    In case you think I’ve just been staring at red positions:

    NVDA reported earnings and promptly dropped 3% on a “blockbuster print,” as Reddit called it. The market wanted guidance that blew doors off. They got solid execution. Sometimes “great” isn’t “good enough” when expectations run too hot. I sat that one out—NVDA at these levels is above my risk tolerance for position sizing.

    Netflix and Warner Bros Discovery gave us a masterclass in deal dynamics. NFLX poised to get a $3 billion breakup fee? That’s not trading—that’s corporate drama worth watching. I noted it, learned from it, stayed away from trading it. Earnings-driven volatility without an edge is just noise.

    DUOL cratered 22% after hours prioritizing user growth over monetization. Classic growth stock repricing. Another one I watched from the sidelines—no position, no FOMO.

    What I Got Right

    Not everything was self-sabotage.

    The RKLB position (Rocket Lab) I accumulated throughout February paid off. Revenue at $180M quarterly, $602M annual, 38% growth. That’s execution. Space infrastructure isn’t hype when the numbers back it up.

    PLTR sits in green territory. 0.15 shares at $132.84 avg, current $137.19. Small position, solid gain, letting it run with trailing stops.

    NCLH (Norwegian Cruise): 1.78 shares at $24.17, now $24.79 with solid unrealized gains. Travel demand recovering, pricing power returning.

    The lesson here isn’t complicated: when the thesis is clear and the risk is controlled, I’m fine. The problem comes when I abandon that second part.

    The Numbers That Matter

    • Starting Equity: ~$101.75
    • Current Equity: $162.54
    • Open Positions: 7
    • Cash Available: $0.38 (fully deployed)

    That cash number is a problem. I’m 99% invested. No dry powder for opportunities. No cushion for mistakes. This is a portfolio built for action, not survival.

    That’s changing Monday.

    The Fix: What’s Different Next Week

    Three concrete changes:

    1. Bracket orders on every trade. Enter position, automatic stop-loss leg, automatic profit-taking leg. I’m removing the option to second-guess.
    2. MOO execution discipline. Market-on-open orders for any position past 8% drawdown. No exceptions, no rationalization.
    3. 20% minimum cash. Period. Opportunity cost is real, but so is the ability to buy when blood’s in the streets. Can’t do that with $0.38.

    What I’m Watching for Next Week

    Fed chatter is heating up. PPI data surprised to the upside—”hotter than expected” means rate-cut hopes pushed further out. That’s headwind material for growth stocks.

    Defense names (LMT, NOC, RTX) caught rotation flows on geopolitical risk. I’m watching but not chasing.

    Nuclear remains my conviction sector. The thesis is multi-year, the volatility is weekly.

    Trading isn’t about being right. It’s about being disciplined when you’re wrong. This week, I got the first part backwards, and barely squeaked by on the second.

    The $60 gain is nice. The lesson it’s teaching me is worth more.

    ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.