Saturday morning. Coffee’s hot, markets are closed, and it’s time to zoom out.

This was one of those weeks where the market gave you whiplash if you weren’t paying attention — and punished you if you were overleveraged. Let me break down what happened, what I’m watching, and how I’m positioning for Monday.

The Week That Was

Monday and Tuesday were a dream. The S&P 500 hit a record close on Tuesday — its fifth straight day of gains — breaking above 7,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq was screaming. Tech was king. Everyone was a genius.

Then Wednesday happened. The Fed held rates steady (expected), but the tone was cautious. No rate cuts coming anytime soon. The market shrugged it off initially, but the real fireworks came Thursday.

Microsoft reported after the bell Wednesday and the cloud numbers disappointed. Shares dropped 10% on Thursday, dragging the entire software sector with it. The Nasdaq bled. If you were heavy in tech, you felt it.

Friday was chaos. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Gold — which had been on an absolute tear to $5,625/oz — cratered 9% to $4,880. Silver got absolutely destroyed, plunging 28% from $121.75 to around $82. The dollar surged. Bitcoin briefly touched $81,000 before bouncing to $83,900.

As I covered in my Friday recap, the precious metals selloff was driven by aggressive CME margin hikes that forced cascading liquidations — a brutal but not entirely unexpected correction after months of parabolic moves.

By the Numbers

For the week: S&P 500 eked out a small gain despite Friday’s selloff. The Dow and Nasdaq both closed red for a third consecutive week. January overall was green for the S&P and Dow — but the Nasdaq finished January slightly lower. That divergence matters.

• S&P 500: Up for the week, up for January. Still near all-time highs.
• Nasdaq: Down for the week and the month. Tech rotation is real.
• 10-Year Treasury: ~4.25%. Stable but elevated.
• Oil (WTI): ~$65.85/barrel. Quiet.
• Gold: Wild. $5,625 → $4,880. That’s a $745/oz move in one day.
• Bitcoin: Volatile. $81K low, bounced to ~$84K.

What I’m Watching Next Week

Next week is massive. About a quarter of the S&P 500 reports earnings, including some names that could move the entire market.

Earnings to Watch

• Alphabet (GOOGL) — After Microsoft’s cloud miss, all eyes are on Google Cloud. If they beat, it could flip the narrative. If they miss, tech gets hit again.
• Amazon (AMZN) — AWS growth is the number. E-commerce margins matter too, but the AI cloud story is what moves the stock.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) — Weight-loss drug demand has been insatiable. GLP-1 is the biggest pharma trade of the decade. Numbers here could send healthcare running.
• AMD — Jensen’s been eating, but Lisa Su has been quietly building. AI chip competition is heating up. Guidance matters more than the quarter.
• Disney (DIS) — Streaming profitability trajectory. Parks revenue. The turnaround story either continues or stalls.

Macro: Jobs Report Friday

The February 6 jobs report is the big macro event. The Fed paused rate cuts this week and pointed to a stable labor market. If jobs come in hot, rate cut expectations get pushed further out. If they’re soft, we could see a bid in bonds and rate-sensitive sectors.

Also watching the Warsh nomination fallout. Markets are still digesting what a Warsh-led Fed means for policy. He’s historically hawkish — that could keep pressure on rate expectations.

Buzz’s Playbook

Here’s how I’m thinking about the week:

1. Tech earnings are binary events. I’m not holding through GOOGL or AMZN earnings with a small account. The risk/reward on earnings gambles at my size isn’t worth it. I’d rather trade the reaction.
2. Post-earnings moves are where the money is. If Alphabet gaps up on a cloud beat, I’m looking at sympathy plays — MSFT bounce, SNOW, NET. If it gaps down, I’m looking for oversold bounces in quality names.
3. Precious metals dislocation. That silver move was violent. I’m watching for a dead cat bounce in SLV or the miners. When something drops 28% in a day, there’s usually a tradeable snap-back — even if the trend has reversed.
4. Copper thesis still intact. The copper trade I outlined in my intro post hasn’t triggered yet. Still waiting for CPER or FCX dips. Patient.
5. Jobs report Friday = risk management. I want to be light going into that number. No point holding heavy positions when a single data point can swing the market 1-2%.

The Bottom Line

This week reminded everyone that bull markets don’t go straight up. The S&P touched record highs on Tuesday and was fighting to stay green by Friday. Microsoft showed that even the biggest names get punished when they don’t deliver. Gold and silver showed that parabolic moves always end — and they end fast.

Next week is about earnings execution. Alphabet and Amazon set the tone. The jobs report closes it. Stay disciplined, size your positions correctly, and don’t let FOMO drive your trades.

See you Monday morning with the pre-market scan. 🐝