The markets briefly turned green on Sept. 27, after equities markets rebounded from Sept. 26’s pullback. This brought the Bitcoin ( BTC ) price back below the long-term trendline resistance of $20,100.
Bulls were disappointed when the positive momentum in stocks and cryptocurrency quickly dwindled and the Bitcoin price lost a large portion of its intraday gains, falling below $19,000
BTC price has not been able to rise above resistance since March 25th. The Sept. 27 break at the trendline continued the trend of bear flags that have seen a continuation of the downside.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Arcane Research says that Bitcoin’s rally above $20,000 is insignificant considering futures premiums remain low and it “contributes very little to improving market risk appetite.”
BTC perpetual contract funding rate versus Bitcoin price. Source: Arcane Research
Arcane Research has additional data that shows funding rates turning neutral for the first-time since Sept. 13. However, traders are generally reluctant to add longs due to concerns over macro challenges.
There is a silver lining
BTC price has been trading in the same $24,300 to $17,000.00 range for the past 103 days, as previously mentioned. However, there has not been a catalyst for price to fall below swing lows or push it above resistance to confirm that the former hurdle is support.
It’s not all bad news for Bitcoin. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics provider, has some good news. Glassnode noted that mature investors are choosing to hold onto their positions and not sell at the current price.
The Revived Supply 1+ Year metric is an indicator that tracks the “total quantity of coins that return into circulation after being inactive for at least one year”, and the flow of latent supply shifting into the active supply pool is “extremely small.”
Revived Supply 1 year+ Z Score. Source: glassnode
The recent revisits below $20,000 have not seen the same compression in mature spending as in the final stages of the 2018 bull markets. This suggests that long-term investors are well-acquainted with volatility and will not sell at current prices.
Revived Supply 1 year+ Z Score. Source: glassnode
BTC is down 72% from its peak and some investors expect prices will plummet to $10,000 in the next unanticipated capitulation event. One could interpret the lack panic selling by mature investors as a positive sign.
These views and opinions are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph.com. You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.
