6 Questions for Dominik Schener, Iota Foundation

May 15, 2022

Price analysis 8/19: BTC. ETH. BNB. XRP. The sharp sell-off in Bitcoin ( BTC), and other major altcoins on Aug. 19 was a result of a lackluster trigger. However, it is not clear what caused the abrupt drop. According to Coinglass data, the sharp fall led to liquidations exceeding $551 million over the last 24 hours. Other formations, except for a V-shaped top, take longer to complete because buyers and sellers are trying to get the upper hand. These volatile movements can lead to a lot of noise that could be a good opportunity for traders in the short-term, but investors who are looking long-term should not get sucked in by this noise. Everyday cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360 Glassnode data indicates that Bitcoin investors who bought Bitcoin in 2017 and earlier are simply holding onto their positions. On Aug. 18, the Bitcoin supply that has been dormant for at most five years hit an all-time high 24.351%, indicating that investors aren’t willing to sell out in panic or for minor profits. Will Bitcoin and other altcoins be able to challenge their June lows? Or will the bulls simply buy the current dip. Let’s look at the charts for the top 10 cryptocurrencies to see what happens. BTC/USDT Bitcoin’s main trend is downward, but the bulls are trying to find a bottom. For the past few days, the price has been moving in an upward channel. Short-term traders may have been tempted to take profits by the failure of bulls to push price above the channel’s resistance line. This has caused the price to fall below the moving averages. BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView BTC/USDT pairs fall to support lines. When the price trades within an ascending channel it is common for traders to try to buy dips to support lines and then sell close to the resistance line. The likelihood of a bounce from the support line is high. The buyers will attempt to push the pair higher than the moving averages if that happens. The possibility of a rally towards the resistance line could be possible if the pair breaks and closes above the 20-day exponentialmoving average (EMA) ($23265). If the price falls below the channel, this positive outlook could be invalidated. This could lead to a drop in price to $18,626. ETH/USDT On Aug. 19, Ether ( ETH ) fell below the 20-day EMA ($1,771), which is the first sign the recovery may be slowing down. The $1,700 level is the most important to monitor on the downside. It had been a strong support for Ether between Aug. 6-10. ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView The price rebounding off $1,700 with strength will indicate that bulls are trying to turn this level into support. The ETH/USDT currency pair could rise to $1960, and then to $2,030. Breaking above this level could signal the resumption or continuation of the uptrend. The pair could rally to the downtrend. Contrary to popular belief, a break in the price will indicate that traders who bought at lower levels may be aggressively closing their positions. This could push the pair towards the 50-day SMA (simple moving average) ($1,519). BNB/USDT BNB fell below the 20-day EMA ($304), indicating that short-term traders might be making profits. On Aug. 19, the price fell further to the 50-day SMA (272) If the recovery is to continue, the bulls must defend this level. BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView The BNB/USDT pair may rise towards the overhead resistance of $338 if the price rises from its current level. This could create an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that will end on a break above $338. The pair could fall to $240 if it falls below the 50-day SMA. This will indicate that the pair could remain within a wide range of $183 to $338 for a while. XRP/USDT The overhead resistance of $0.39 per hour on Aug. 17 was not reached by the bulls. This suggests that the bears will continue to defend this level with their full force. XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView Traders usually buy near the support in a range and then sell close to it. This is exactly what happened with the XRP/USDT pairs. Bulls might wait for the price of $0.30 to fall before buying. The price rebounding below $0.30 will signal that the range-bound action could continue for a few days. If buyers push the price higher than $0.39, or bears lower the price below $0.30, the next directional move might be made. Price action within a range can be unpredictable and random. Experiential traders wait for the breakout before entering a trade. ADA/USDT Cardano ( ADA ) fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.52) Aug. 18, suggesting that bulls might have been in a hurry to close their positions. The bears had a slight advantage. ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView On Aug. 19, the sellers continued to push their advantage and drove the price below its 50-day SMA ($0.49). This raises the possibility that USDT/ADA could fall to $0.40, the critical support. This level has been defended by the bulls twice before, so it is likely that they will bounce off it. The pair could fluctuate between $0.40- $0.60 for a while if that happens. To begin the next leg in the downtrend, the bears will need to bring the pair below $0.40. SOL/USDT Solana ( SOL), bounced off the support level on Aug. 18, and bulls attempted to push the price higher than the 20-day EMA (41). The bears held the level, however. SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView This led to a resurgence in the selling that occurred on Aug. 19, and pushed the price below the SMA of $39. This invalidated bullish ascending triangular pattern. The bears now plan to bring down the SOL/USDT pair at $34.50. The pair may attempt to rally above the moving averages if the price recovers from $34.50. The pair could then consolidate between $34.50 to $48 for a while. A break below $34.50 could send the pair down to $31. DOGE/USDT Dogecoin ( DOGE) declined and fell below the breakout level at $0.08 on August 18. This was the first sign that the Aug. 14 break above $0.08 may have been a dead cat bounce. DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView The bears have continued to sell and pulled the price below the trendline for the ascending triangle pattern. Breaking below this level could cause the bullish setup to be invalidated and lead to a drop of $0.06. This level is expected to attract bullish buying. If the price bounces off its current level, it could indicate that bulls are trying to defend the trendline. To gain an upper hand, the buyers will need to push the DOGE/USDT price back above $0.09 Related: The debt crisis could lead to the liquidation of nearly $55M in Bored Ape and CryptoPunks NFTs. DOT/USDT Polkadot ( DOT), closed below the 20 day EMA ($8.46), on Aug. 17. This was the first sign that the breakout above $9 might have been a sucker’s rally. Sellers capitalized on the situation and pulled down the price below its 50-day SMA ($7.75), Aug. 19. DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView This could lead to a drop in the critical support level at $6. This level has acted as a strong support twice before; the bulls will defend it again. The DOT/USDT pairing could trade within a wide range for several days if the price recovers from $6. After bulls push the price higher than $10 or bears lower the pair below $6, the next strong move could be in the DOT/USDT pair. SHIB/USDT In a downtrend bull traps are often created by strong rallies. This is what happened to Shiba Inu ( SHIB). The price was not sustained above $0.000017 by the buyers on Aug. 17. They could not build upon the momentum. This may have led to profit-booking by short-term traders. SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView On Aug. 16, the bulls attempted to resume the upward-move, but the bears stood firm. This increased selling pressure, and the bears pulled down the price to $0.000014 on August 18. The bears will attempt to consolidate their position by dropping the price below the 50 day SMA ($0.000012). The bulls must push the price above $0.000014 to invalidate this bearish view. If they achieve that, it will signal strong buying at lower levels which could open the way for a rally to $0.000017. A trend change could be signalled by the SHIB/USDT pairing above $0.000018 AVAX/USDT Avalanche ( SVAX ) was unable to sustain above the breakout level at $26.38 on Aug. 17. This indicates that traders were running for the exit. The selling continued, and the price fell below the 50-day SMA ($22.93 on Aug. 19. AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView Otherwise, the selling could intensify. The AVAX/USDT pair could fall to $16 and then to $13.71. Breaking below $13.71 could indicate the beginning of the next downtrend leg. If the price bounces off the support line, it will indicate that bulls are trying to make a higher low. To gain an upper hand, buyers will need to push the price higher than $26.38 and keep it there. This will increase the chance of a break above $31. These views and opinions are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph. Risk is inherent in every investment or trading move. Before making any investment or trading move, you should do your research. Market data are provided by HitBTC Exchange.

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6 Questions for Dominik Schener, Iota Foundation

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