Bitcoin traders expect new lows in the year after BTC rejects $25K — Data disagrees

After testing the $25,000 resistance, Bitcoin ( ), suffered a 5% decline on Aug. 15. This move has liquidated more than $150 million worth leverage long positions, and some traders have predicted a return to the $18,000 level.

This price action was accompanied by worsening market conditions for tech stocks like Tencent, a Chinese company that is predicted to record its first ever quarterly revenue decline. Analysts predict that the Chinese gaming and social media conglomerate will post quarterly earnings of $19.5 billion. This is 4% less than the previous year.

On Aug. 16, Citi investment bank reduced Zoom Video Communications’ (ZM), recommendation to sell. It also stated that the stock was “highly risk.” Analysts stated that ZM shares could drop 20% due to a difficult post-COVID dynamic and additional competition from Microsoft Teams.

Crypto investors continue to be plagued by bearish sentiment, as @ChrisBTCbull, an influencer and trader, stated. He also mentioned that traders were able to set sub-$17,000 targets after a simple rejection at $25,000

Margin traders are bullish despite $25,000 rejection

The ability to monitor margin and options markets gives excellent insight into professional traders’ positions. A negative reading would occur if market makers and whales reduce their exposure to BTC as it approaches the $25,000 threshold.

Margin trading allows investors borrow cryptocurrency to increase their trading position and increases returns. One way to increase your exposure is to borrow stablecoins in order buy additional Bitcoin positions.

However, Bitcoin borrowers cannot short the cryptocurrency if they bet on the price falling. Contrary to futures contracts, the balance of margin longs and shorters is not always equal.

OKX USDT/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX

The chart above shows that OKX traders have remained relatively stable at 14 while bitcoin price increased 6.3% in just two days, only to be rejected when it surpassed the $25,000. resistance.

The metric is bullish and favors stablecoin borrowing by an extensive margin. Pro traders have maintained their bullish positions and there were no further bearish margin trades. Bitcoin fell 5.5% on August 16.

Related to After 3 months of major selling, 27% less BTC was mined by Bitcoin miners.

Option markets maintain a neutral stance

Although it is uncertain whether Bitcoin will continue to climb towards the $25,000 resistance, the 25% delta skew indicates that arbitrage desks or market makers are charging too much for downside or upside protection.

The indicator compares similar put (sell) and call (buy), and will turn positive when there is fear, because the premium for protective put options is higher than that of risk-taking call options.

If traders are worried about a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will rise above 10%. Generalized excitement, on the other hand, reflects a negative 10% Skew.

Bitcoin 30-day options show 25% delta skew: Source:

The 25% delta skew, which is shown above, has not moved much since Aug. 11. It oscillated between 5% to 7% most of its time. This range is neutral as options traders price the same risk of unexpected dumps or pumps.

Pro traders would have entered a “fear” sentiment if they had not been interested in providing downside protection.

The OKX margin lending rate, despite the neutral Bitcoin options indicator showed market makers and whales maintaining their bullish bets despite a 5.5% BTC decline on Aug. 16. Investors should expect another test of the $25,000 resistance once global macroeconomic conditions improve.

These views and opinions are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph. Risk is inherent in every investment or trading move. Before making any investment or trading move, you should do your research.

Opinion writer on 7trade7