Bill Noble in another reality would just be another man in a suit sitting behind a large desk at the Fed and the SEC, probably making negative incantations such as “crypto is evil.”
His track record is impressive: JP Morgan and UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs. That’s Noble in an evil mirror dimensions. He is a crypto guy in our world. He talks to me wearing a t-shirt and has bicycles at the back. He embraced the rebels and he left the Dark Side.
His YouTube podcasts and television appearances are well-known. He is currently a senior market analyst for Token Metrics.
Wall Street career
He was studying economics at Rutgers University in New Jersey (1987-1991). One of two highly sought-after internships was at JP Morgan’s Forex desk on Wall Street. Noble began trading in primitive technology, when much of the analysis was done on paper. He was given the responsibility of managing the desk in August 1990 while everyone went on vacation. “Cos nothing happens during August, let the child fill in.” Then, in 1991, Iraq invaded Kuwait and chaos broke out in the markets.
“The volatility in price seemed extreme to me. I didn’t know how people kept track of it. I decided to go to the technical analyst attached to the currency unit. I replied, “I’m sure everybody is looking for help trying this out span>
“He went, ‘Actually no one does.’ So, John Murphy gave me Charting Made Easy and took me to sushi. From there, I was off to race using charts .”
He was a skilled technical analyst and writer on various markets. This all happened over the years he worked his way up through Wall Street. Noble was the man to call during Black Swan events and crashes, such as the collapse of Long Term Capital Management in 1998. This nearly wiped out the western financial system. He jokes that he is like a firefighter.
From bonds and stocks to crypto analysis
He became interested in crypto in 2017. He attended a Bitcoin conference in Austin, Texas and began to chart Ether with his hand. As Ether prices increased, it became a huge scroll. He met Charlie Schrem, a Bitcoin early adopter who was walking through an airport. Schrem has experienced a remarkable crypto career that saw him go through many ups and downs. He even served jail time for the Silk Road market implosion. They met in crypto.IQ, a consulting service that aims to improve cryptocurrency analysis using stocks, bonds, and other mainstream data.
Noble joined Token Metrics in September 2019 as a senior market analyst. The subscription service, which is led by Ian Balina, provides retail traders with AI-driven insight, as well as the work of analysts researching volatile cryptocurrency markets, to help them make profitable trades regardless of the overall environment.
It combines an artificial intelligence system with my charting, he explains. This effectively creates a quantitative product, an institutional product of quantitative research that can be delivered to retail. There are data providers and service providers. But, we can give you tools that you can use. We have top analysts who can look at everything, from charts macro to NFTs span>
Sterling’s crash is often the beginning of contagion, as I remember. $GBP was always a sign of trouble in the coal mine. #DXY
— Bill Noble (@crypto_noble September 26, 2022
Noble has 17,600 followers on Twitter. He is a popular YouTube channel with a lot of subscribers and is highly sought-after as a guest analyst on crypto TV. has a Tony Soprano-esque accent from New Jersey.
He loves crypto’s volatility. “It’s either 10% up or 10% off each day,” he said. “I don’t have to wait five-years between crises. In fact, I need to wait only 45 minutes span>
Noble emphasizes that crypto technical analysis requires flexibility and you should not be tied to any one method. Surprisingly, Noble looks back to the distant past when he develops his basic systems. “Gann works very well [William Gann], an early charting pioneer]. The systems, Wyckoff being one of them — any system that was used in the early 20th-century when stocks were wild west and there were 50 publicly traded automobile companies — work well. Fibonacci can also be helpful. Tom DeMark’s work span>
The market’s current state
He views the current crypto winter, which he considers to be a contrarian approach, as having a long-term advantage: clearing the market and liquidating bad projects.
“The previous run-up was fueled by massive liquidity pushes by central banks. After central banks pulled liquidity, the 2008 crash of crypto occurred. Speculative assets that should never have risen, in the first place, fell to zero span>
Noble predicts that the crypto economy will see the start of spring. This is similar to the many crises he experienced in traditional financial markets such as 2008 and 1987. He mentions that Warren Buffett was one of the first to dismiss the internet and Amazon following the 2002 crash. Buffett said to CNBC in 2019 he was “an idiot” for not purchasing shares in Amazon in the past.
“Bear markets are a good time to do your research because Mr. Market is now sorting who’s going to win and who’s going to lose.” He believes that Ethereum is the next internet, connected by Polkadot and Ethereum. “Web3 will be the next internet. It will be connected by Ethereum and Polkadot span>
Noble is also a big supporter of privacy coins, and has approved quotes from Edward Snowden, whistleblower at the United States National Security Agency: “One day your wealth could be held against yourself.” Zcash will gain momentum as a privacy coin because of its central bank push for centralized digital currencies. This will allow Big Brother to monitor all transactions. “Privacy coins will no longer be for pirates but for regular people span>
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Psychology of trading
Trading is influenced by psychology. Noble says that the best traders do their exercise in the morning to prepare for trading.
He says, “It’s really all about emotional management.” They also create a research plan and follow it. A method or style is essential, and you must study to achieve it.
He explained that Bill Williams, the famous trader who invented many indicators including the Alligator Indicator, Awesome Oscillator, and the Market Facilitation Index, required his students to complete three pages of stream of consciousness writing before they could trade. This was to clear their heads of any emotional or intellectual barriers to trading. Noble recommends that people read Williams’ book Trading Chaos.
Noble suggests that emotional investors adopt a long-term strategy instead of the volatile trading environment of day trading. You should hold a portfolio for a long time, and make only a few trades each month or year. Yield farming would still give you a return on your investment.
If you can keep your cool, Noble believes that the long-term future is bright.
“During tightening cycles, crypto will get hurt like any other thing, but as tightening cycles come to an end, crypto will be the future of money.”